Casa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Casa Pia were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Tondela. Casa Pia had 5.8 days of rest, Tondela 3.8 and had to travel 150 km.
Away travel150 kmRest days5.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Casa Pia44%
Draw29%
Tondela27%
Casa Pia48%
Draw26%
Tondela26%
Casa Pia44%
Draw29%
Tondela27%
Casa Pia37%
Draw30%
Tondela33%
Casa Pia46%
Draw28%
Tondela27%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rio Maior)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Casa Pia
Tondela
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
13
AttackIn forecast
16
25
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Casa PiaTondela
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
1.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
55%
Scored inContext
42%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
8.35
ShotsContext
9.94
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.27
32%
On target shareContext
32%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
57%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.32
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.55
Shots allowedContext
13.23
4.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.97
3.97
BlocksContext
3.50
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.69
60%
Save rateContext
73%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
295
PassesContext
326
218
Accurate passesContext
257
74%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.68
15.35
FoulsContext
13.84
13.39
Fouls sufferedContext
11.84
2.77
Yellow cardsContext
2.61
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
10.40
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
27%
On target shareContext
30%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
60%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
68%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
260
PassesContext
370
180
Accurate passesContext
298
69%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.70
16.30
FoulsContext
13.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel150 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 3.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | 150 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 605 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
18André Geraldes
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
24I. Mohamed
72Gaizka Larrazabal
11João Marques
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
48Tiago Manso
32Juan Rodríguez
97Cicero
90M. Aïko
79Hugo Félix
7Pedro Henryque
16Rony Lopes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-8-5
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.60
Tondela · Away
0.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-9
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Alverca | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Estrela | L 0–4 AL 3–5 H | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Estoril | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Arouca | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nacional | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Porto | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–2 AL 0–2 H |
| AVS | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 H | L 0–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 90 · 0.77 per game | 22 of 90 · 0.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Casa Pia wins0 draws0 Tondela wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Dec 2025Tondela1–2Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.77 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.42 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 52% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 35% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 58% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Casa Pia | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.72 | 3.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.93 | 5.55 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 9.36 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 17/29 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 14/29 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 10/29 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.84 | 2.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 5.36 | 4.94 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% 26/31 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 22/31 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Casa Pia | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.10 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.40 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 4.83
Red cards0.11league 0.24
Cards 5+44%league 58%
Fouls31.1league 26.8
Penalties0.44league 0.44
Home wins78%league 41%
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Feb 26A · Famalicao0–22
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L8 Nov 25H · Guimaraes0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Casa Pia30 games · scored 26 · conceded 50
5
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
13
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
9
61-75
4
10
76-90
Tondela31 games · scored 23 · conceded 52
6
4
0-15
1
8
16-30
2
9
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
12
61-75
5
13
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
