Chelsea vs Aston Villa – 27 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 18 Sat, Dec 27 · 17:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 5th · 29 pts · 17 played DLDWD

1–2Full time

Aston Villa 3rd · 36 pts · 17 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Chelsea had 7.2 days of rest, Aston Villa 6 and had to travel 163 km.

Away travel163 kmRest days7.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2

Chelsea42%

Draw25%

Aston Villa32%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.39

Chelsea41%

Draw27%

Aston Villa32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Chelsea42%

Draw26%

Aston Villa33%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.36

Chelsea35%

Draw25%

Aston Villa40%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.55

Chelsea41%

Draw27%

Aston Villa32%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.27

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 128

Team strength

Chelsea

Aston Villa

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 86

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

77 AttackIn forecast 83

74 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Aston Villa

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.59

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.06

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

88% Scored inContext 71%

47% Clean sheetsContext 29%

14.06 ShotsContext 11.59

5.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.24

36% On target shareContext 37%

9.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.81

67% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.91

10.12 Shots allowedContext 12.71

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.06

2.67 BlocksContext 3.88

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

71% Save rateContext 70%

58% PossessionIn forecast 52%

520 PassesContext 434

448 Accurate passesContext 367

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.76 FoulsContext 10.00

12.65 Fouls sufferedContext 13.65

2.12 Yellow cardsContext 1.47

0.18 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.86

90% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.00 ShotsContext 13.30

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

32% On target shareContext 46%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

66% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 18%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.80 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.75 BlocksContext 2.90

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

69% Save rateContext 74%

56% PossessionIn forecast 53%

501 PassesContext 459

430 Accurate passesContext 393

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.97

13.40 FoulsContext 10.90

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel163 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec	6Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	325 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 5	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 5B. Badiashile 23T. Chalobah 24R. James

8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo

49A. Garnacho 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-4-2

23E. Martínez(G)

22I. Maatsen 3V. Lindelöf 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

10E. Buendía 8Y. Tielemans 44B. Kamara 7J. McGinn

27M. Rogers 17D. Malen

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea+0.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Aston Villa-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.88

Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Aston Villa
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 A
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	W 4–0 H
Leeds	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 A
Arsenal	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 H
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Brighton	L 1–3 H	W 4–3 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Brentford	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 A
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
West Ham	W 5–1 A	W 3–2 A
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 H
Points	26 of 48 · 1.63 per game	33 of 48 · 2.06 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Chelsea wins2 draws4 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.10 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

22 Feb 2025Aston Villa2–1Chelsea
1 Dec 2024Chelsea3–0Aston Villa
27 Apr 2024Aston Villa2–2Chelsea
24 Sep 2023Chelsea0–1Aston Villa
1 Apr 2023Chelsea0–2Aston Villa
16 Oct 2022Aston Villa0–2Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	1.59
Conceded per game	1.00	1.06
Match goals	2.71	2.65	3.00
Over 1.5	82%	71%
Over 2.5	59%	59%	58%
Over 3.5	29%	24%
Both teams scored	53%	53%	61%
Clean sheets	47%	29%
Failed to score	12%	29%
Games	17	17

	Chelsea	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	2.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.00
Match goals	2.40	3.40	3.00
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	61%
Clean sheets	60%	30%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.81	5.06
Corners conceded	4.13	4.88
Match total	9.94	9.94	9.89
Over 8.5	81% 13/16	76% 13/17
Over 9.5	75% 12/16	71% 12/17
Over 10.5	44% 7/16	47% 8/17
Cards
Cards	2.35	1.53
Opponent cards	2.24	2.47
Match total	4.59	4.00	3.85
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	65% 11/17
Over 4.5	53% 9/17	35% 6/17

	Chelsea	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.44
Corners conceded	3.25	3.89
Match total	8.75	8.33	9.89
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.30
Match total	4.00	3.70	3.85
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 128 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 3.70

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 38%

Fouls21.0league 21.6

Penalties0.20league 0.20

Home wins51%league 49%

Chelsea17 with this referee

Record4-8-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

D13 Sep 25A · Brentford2–22
D13 Apr 25H · Ipswich2–22
W3 Feb 25H · West Ham2–13
W1 Dec 24H · Aston Villa3–02
W7 Oct 23A · Burnley4–14

Aston Villa15 with this referee

Record5-4-6 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.1 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds1

L1 Nov 25A · Liverpool0–23
L31 Aug 25H · Crystal Palace0–32
W10 May 25A · Bournemouth1–05
W2 Apr 25A · Brighton3–03
L1 Dec 24A · Chelsea0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.