Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 16:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Brentford 6th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel13 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Brentford—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 15 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Brentford. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ChelseaBrentford
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
77 AttackIn forecast 73
74 DefenceIn forecast 73
69 Form indexContext 61
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaBrentford
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.73
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
86% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
14.29 ShotsContext 15.00
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14
39% On target shareContext 28%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 11.43
63% Box shareContext 76%
17% ConversionContext 12%
1.60 OffsidesContext 1.60
12.43 Shots allowedContext 15.43
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.67 BlocksContext 4.43
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57
73% Save rateContext 71%
47% PossessionIn forecast 45%
432 PassesContext 367
361 Accurate passesContext 283
84% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.85
9.29 FoulsContext 14.71
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 9.29
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 2.71
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
90% Scored inContext 90%
10% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.30 ShotsContext 13.40
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
40% On target shareContext 27%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.20
60% Box shareContext 74%
17% ConversionContext 12%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.71
12.50 Shots allowedContext 17.30
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
3.44 BlocksContext 5.30
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
74% Save rateContext 72%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
442 PassesContext 369
370 Accurate passesContext 286
84% Pass accuracyContext 78%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.83
10.50 FoulsContext 13.30
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Brentford
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 6 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Liverpool1–21.5 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Aston Villa2–21.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · Chelsea3–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Bournemouth2–21.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Sunderland1–12.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways301 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Brentford Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Liverpool (H) 1–2, 17 Oct
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode
27V. Janelt 6Y. Yarmoliuk
19J. Anthony 8M. Jensen 11D. Ouattara
9Thiago

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Brentford Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Brentford · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.67
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentChelseaBrentford
Bournemouth W 5–1 H D 2–2 A
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Chelsea wins4 draws4 Brentford wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.60 Over 2.550% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 50%
  • 18 Sep 2026Brentford3–0Chelsea
  • 17 Jan 2026Chelsea2–0Brentford
  • 13 Sep 2025Brentford2–2Chelsea
  • 6 Apr 2025Brentford0–0Chelsea
  • 15 Dec 2024Chelsea2–1Brentford
  • 2 Mar 2024Brentford2–2Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 2.431.86
Conceded per game 1.861.14
Match goals 4.293.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 86%71%
Over 3.5 57%29%
Both teams scored 71%71%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 14%0%
Games77
ChelseaBrentfordForecast
Scored per game 2.101.60
Conceded per game 1.701.40
Match goals 3.803.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 80%70%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won5.863.86
Corners conceded5.435.14
Match total11.299.009.49
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 10.557% 4/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.863.00
Opponent cards3.001.86
Match total4.864.864.17
Over 3.586% 6/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
ChelseaBrentfordLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.00
Corners conceded5.306.40
Match total10.1010.409.49
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 10.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.602.70
Opponent cards3.102.20
Match total5.704.904.17
Over 3.590% 9/1080% 8/10
Over 4.570% 7/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Brentford7 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2 1 0-15
16-30
4 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 3 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2 2 0-15
16-30
5 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Fulham May 3016:00 Liverpool Bournemouth May 3016:00 Arsenal Brighton May 3016:00 Chelsea Brentford May 3016:00 Crystal Palace Leeds May 3016:00 Ipswich Everton May 3016:00 Hull City Newcastle May 3016:00 Aston Villa Tottenham May 3016:00 Sunderland Manchester City May 3016:00 Coventry Nottingham Forest May 3016:00