Coventry
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 16:00
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel66 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Coventry—%
Draw—%
Nottingham Forest—%
Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)
Forecast from 15 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Coventry and Nottingham Forest. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Coventry
Nottingham Forest
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
47
AttackIn forecast
68
59
DefenceIn forecast
74
64
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CoventryNottingham Forest
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.85
43%
Scored inContext
43%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.29
ShotsContext
17.14
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
32%
On target shareContext
21%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
10.43
64%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
17.43
Shots allowedContext
10.57
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
6.83
BlocksContext
3.00
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
46%
Save rateContext
68%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
323
PassesContext
370
247
Accurate passesContext
292
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.00
FoulsContext
14.14
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.66
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
16.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
25%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
62%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
6%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.11
15.20
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
5.78
BlocksContext
4.40
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
49%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
380
PassesContext
388
304
Accurate passesContext
309
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.70
FoulsContext
13.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Coventry
LLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.3 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Nottingham Forest
DWLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel66 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Coventry |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 66 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 276 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Coventry
Last XI · not confirmed
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
23S. Thomas-Asante
5J. Rudoni
7T. Sakamoto
49S. Chérif
Nottingham Forest
Last XI · not confirmed
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo
2O. Diomande
23Jair
3N. Williams
21X. Schlager
24J. McAtee
27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye
8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Coventry
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nottingham Forest
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Coventry · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Coventry | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Coventry wins0 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 19 Sep 2026Nottingham Forest0–1Coventry
- 6 Apr 2022Nottingham Forest2–0Coventry
- 8 Aug 2021Coventry2–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Coventry | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Coventry | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Coventry | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 9.57 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 2.72 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Coventry | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.50 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Coventry7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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