Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel163 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Aston Villa—%
Draw—%
Tottenham—%
Weather (Birmingham)
Forecast from 15 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Aston Villa and Tottenham. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Aston Villa
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Aston Villa
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Aston Villa
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Team strength
Aston Villa
Tottenham
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
83
AttackIn forecast
56
78
DefenceIn forecast
74
84
Form indexContext
58
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaTottenham
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
57%
Scored inContext
43%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.86
ShotsContext
14.14
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
27%
On target shareContext
27%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.57
64%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.86
15.86
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.83
BlocksContext
4.00
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
410
PassesContext
535
339
Accurate passesContext
470
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.71
FoulsContext
13.86
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.71
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.60
ShotsContext
14.40
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
35%
On target shareContext
24%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
65%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.44
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.22
BlocksContext
3.40
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
73%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
404
PassesContext
510
340
Accurate passesContext
443
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.50
FoulsContext
14.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
LWDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 227 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Last XI · not confirmed
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
44J. Manzambi
47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Tottenham
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Tottenham · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Brentford | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 14 meetings
7 Aston Villa wins0 draws3 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 19 Sep 2026Tottenham2–3Aston Villa
- 3 May 2026Aston Villa1–2Tottenham
- 10 Jan 2026Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 19 Oct 2025Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 16 May 2025Aston Villa2–0Tottenham
- 3 Nov 2024Tottenham4–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.29 | |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 6.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 11.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.14 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 5.28 | 3.72 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.20 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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