Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 30 · 16:00 Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Leeds 7th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel272 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Crystal Palace—%
Draw—%
Leeds—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 15 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Crystal Palace and Leeds. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Crystal PalaceLeeds
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
64 Current StrengthIn forecast 73
64 AttackIn forecast 69
54 DefenceIn forecast 77
64 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Leeds

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal PalaceLeeds
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.07
57% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
10.14 ShotsContext 12.00
3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
37% On target shareContext 33%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
70% Box shareContext 65%
13% ConversionContext 11%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
17.86 Shots allowedContext 14.00
6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.29 BlocksContext 5.17
3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43
61% Save rateContext 86%
43% PossessionIn forecast 47%
404 PassesContext 385
326 Accurate passesContext 302
81% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.89
10.00 FoulsContext 12.71
10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.86
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.29
1.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.19
70% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.00 ShotsContext 11.50
3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
36% On target shareContext 31%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
71% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.40
16.30 Shots allowedContext 14.90
5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
4.70 BlocksContext 4.89
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
63% Save rateContext 77%
45% PossessionIn forecast 46%
416 PassesContext 376
341 Accurate passesContext 292
82% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.92
10.50 FoulsContext 11.90
9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km796 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Manchester United1–11.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
  • D20 SepH · Crystal Palace0–01.9 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Newcastle4–11.7 xPts
  • D5 SepA · Brighton1–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Crystal Palace Leeds
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km272 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways796 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one——

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen
Leeds Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Manchester United (H) 1–1, 18 Oct
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović 30N. Elvedi 24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson 22A. Tanaka 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor 18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Crystal Palace Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Leeds Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.67
Leeds · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentCrystal PalaceLeeds
Brighton L 0–5 A D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest W 3–1 H W 1–0 A
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Crystal Palace wins3 draws3 Leeds wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.11 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets33% · 56%
  • 20 Sep 2026Leeds0–0Crystal Palace
  • 15 Mar 2026Crystal Palace0–0Leeds
  • 20 Dec 2025Leeds4–1Crystal Palace
  • 9 Apr 2023Leeds1–5Crystal Palace
  • 9 Oct 2022Crystal Palace2–1Leeds
  • 25 Apr 2022Crystal Palace0–0Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Crystal PalaceLeedsForecast
Scored per game 1.291.29
Conceded per game 2.430.86
Match goals 3.712.14
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 71%29%
Over 3.5 71%14%
Both teams scored 57%71%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 43%14%
Games77
Crystal PalaceLeedsForecast
Scored per game 1.601.10
Conceded per game 2.201.00
Match goals 3.802.10
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 80%30%
Over 3.5 70%10%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Crystal PalaceLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won3.674.00
Corners conceded6.004.14
Match total9.678.149.49
Over 8.550% 3/643% 3/7
Over 9.533% 2/643% 3/7
Over 10.533% 2/629% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.431.86
Opponent cards1.572.43
Match total3.004.294.17
Over 3.543% 3/771% 5/7
Over 4.529% 2/743% 3/7
Crystal PalaceLeedsLeague
Corners
Corners won3.894.10
Corners conceded5.225.70
Match total9.119.809.49
Over 8.544% 4/960% 6/10
Over 9.533% 3/960% 6/10
Over 10.533% 3/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.601.80
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total3.603.804.17
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
16-30
3 2 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Fulham May 3016:00 Liverpool Bournemouth May 3016:00 Arsenal Brighton May 3016:00 Chelsea Brentford May 3016:00 Crystal Palace Leeds May 3016:00 Ipswich Everton May 3016:00 Hull City Newcastle May 3016:00 Aston Villa Tottenham May 3016:00 Sunderland Manchester City May 3016:00 Coventry Nottingham Forest May 3016:00