Chelsea
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Chelsea were slight favourites.
Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 72). Chelsea had 6.9 days of rest, Brighton 7 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Chelsea55%
Draw23%
Brighton22%
Chelsea53%
Draw25%
Brighton22%
Chelsea55%
Draw24%
Brighton22%
Chelsea47%
Draw25%
Brighton28%
Chelsea53%
Draw25%
Brighton22%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 128
Team strength
Chelsea
Brighton
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
77
AttackIn forecast
87
74
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ChelseaBrighton
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
35%
On target shareContext
40%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
72%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
3.33
10.40
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.80
BlocksContext
1.80
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
68%
Save rateContext
56%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
552
PassesContext
382
485
Accurate passesContext
309
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.80
FoulsContext
13.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
37%
On target shareContext
42%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
65%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.10
Shots allowedContext
11.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.22
BlocksContext
2.70
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
69%
Save rateContext
66%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
505
PassesContext
415
437
Accurate passesContext
346
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.60
FoulsContext
11.60
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Chelsea
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km549 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Brighton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km255 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Chelsea |
Brighton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 549 km | 255 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Chelsea
Confirmed XI
1Robert Sánchez(G)
3Marc Cucurella
21J. Hato
23T. Chalobah
24R. James
8E. Fernández
25M. Caicedo
17Andrey Santos
7Pedro Neto
20João Pedro
41Estêvão
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
5L. Dunk
6J. van Hecke
34J. Veltman
26Y. Ayari
17C. Baleba
22K. Mitoma
25D. Gómez
11Y. Minteh
10G. Rutter
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Chelsea
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Brighton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Chelsea-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Brighton+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Chelsea · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Brighton · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Chelsea wins3 draws3 Brighton wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.70
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 14 Feb 2025Brighton3–0Chelsea
- 28 Sep 2024Chelsea4–2Brighton
- 15 May 2024Brighton1–2Chelsea
- 3 Dec 2023Chelsea3–2Brighton
- 15 Apr 2023Chelsea1–2Brighton
- 29 Oct 2022Brighton4–1Chelsea
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Chelsea | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Chelsea | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Chelsea | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 7.20 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 5/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.60 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Chelsea | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.90 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 128 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 3.57
Red cards0.05league 0.16
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 22.4
Penalties0.16league 0.24
Home wins49%league 47%
Chelsea8 with this referee
Record5-0-3
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W4 May 25H · Liverpool3–12
- W20 Jan 25H · Wolves3–14
- W27 Oct 24H · Newcastle2–16
- L23 Apr 24A · Arsenal0–52
- L25 Nov 23A · Newcastle1–46
Brighton13 with this referee
Record3-6-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D15 Mar 25A · Manchester City2–25
- L1 Feb 25A · Nottingham Forest0–73
- W17 Aug 24A · Everton3–01
- D13 Apr 24A · Burnley1–12
- L2 Mar 24A · Fulham0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Chelsea5 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Brighton5 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
