Chelsea vs Everton – 13 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 13 · 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 5th · 25 pts · 15 played WWDLD

2–0Full time

Everton 7th · 24 pts · 15 played WWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were slight favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 70). Chelsea usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Chelsea had 7 days of rest, Everton 7 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3

Chelsea57%

Draw23%

Everton20%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.08

Chelsea55%

Draw24%

Everton21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.01

Chelsea57%

Draw23%

Everton20%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.06

Chelsea49%

Draw25%

Everton26%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.21

Chelsea55%

Draw24%

Everton21%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.03

Over 2.5 58% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 94

Team strength

Chelsea

Everton

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

77 AttackIn forecast 61

74 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Everton

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

87% Scored inContext 73%

47% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.93 ShotsContext 10.60

5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.07

37% On target shareContext 29%

9.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

66% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.00 Shots allowedContext 12.93

3.36 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.57 BlocksContext 4.80

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

71% Save rateContext 67%

59% PossessionIn forecast 44%

525 PassesContext 379

453 Accurate passesContext 302

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.53 FoulsContext 10.80

12.73 Fouls sufferedContext 12.07

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

90% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.10 ShotsContext 10.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

37% On target shareContext 33%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

66% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.33

8.90 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.56 BlocksContext 4.20

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

67% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 44%

510 PassesContext 386

439 Accurate passesContext 312

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.40 FoulsContext 11.00

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km845 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel286 km617 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec	7Premier League 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	845 km	617 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

8E. Fernández 24R. James

49A. Garnacho 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

37J. Garner 27I. Gueye

18J. Grealish 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Everton+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.57points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-2
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.00

Everton · Away 1.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	Everton
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 A
Leeds	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 A
Wolves	W 3–0 H	W 3–2 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	L 0–3 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	W 3–0 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 A
Brighton	L 1–3 H	W 2–0 H
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Fulham	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
West Ham	W 5–1 A	D 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 H
Points	20 of 36 · 1.67 per game	23 of 36 · 1.92 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Chelsea wins3 draws3 Everton wins

Goals per game1.30 – 0.70 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets50% · 40%

26 Apr 2025Chelsea1–0Everton
22 Dec 2024Everton0–0Chelsea
15 Apr 2024Chelsea6–0Everton
10 Dec 2023Everton2–0Chelsea
18 Mar 2023Chelsea2–2Everton
6 Aug 2022Everton0–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.13
Match goals	2.67	2.33	3.01
Over 1.5	80%	73%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	58%
Over 3.5	27%	13%
Both teams scored	53%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	47%	40%
Failed to score	13%	27%
Games	15	15

	Chelsea	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	2.50	2.40	3.01
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.07	4.40
Corners conceded	3.79	5.07
Match total	9.86	9.47	10.01
Over 8.5	79% 11/14	60% 9/15
Over 9.5	71% 10/14	40% 6/15
Over 10.5	43% 6/14	33% 5/15
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.27
Opponent cards	2.33	1.87
Match total	4.53	4.14	3.79
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	60% 9/15
Over 4.5	53% 8/15	53% 8/15

	Chelsea	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	4.60
Corners conceded	2.50	5.70
Match total	8.75	10.30	10.01
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.80	4.10	3.79
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 94 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 3.66

Red cards0.15league 0.12

Cards 5+39%league 40%

Fouls22.0league 22.0

Penalties0.17league 0.21

Home wins48%league 49%

Chelsea1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Feb 25H · Southampton4–01

Everton3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D3 Nov 25A · Sunderland1–12
D30 Jan 24A · Fulham0–02
L30 Dec 23A · Wolves0–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.