Chelsea vs West Ham – 31 Jan 2026

Premier League Gameweek 24 Sat, Jan 31 · 17:30 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 5th · 37 pts · 23 played DDLWW

3–2Full time

West Ham 18th · 20 pts · 23 played DLLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Chelsea were clear favourites.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 53). Chelsea usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Chelsea had 6.1 days of rest, West Ham 7.2 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days6.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Chelsea71%

Draw17%

West Ham12%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.96

Chelsea67%

Draw20%

West Ham13%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.83

Chelsea71%

Draw17%

West Ham12%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.94

Chelsea63%

Draw20%

West Ham16%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.08

Chelsea69%

Draw19%

West Ham13%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.91

Over 2.5 68% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 200

Team strength

Chelsea

West Ham

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

77 AttackIn forecast 68

74 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

West Ham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

West Ham

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.09 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.96

1.78 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

91% Scored inContext 65%

39% Clean sheetsContext 4%

13.39 ShotsContext 10.43

4.74 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.95

35% On target shareContext 33%

9.27 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

68% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.05

11.22 Shots allowedContext 15.04

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.39

3.19 BlocksContext 4.48

2.95 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.61

73% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 43%

516 PassesContext 377

444 Accurate passesContext 301

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.22 FoulsContext 11.04

12.13 Fouls sufferedContext 11.35

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

2.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

100% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.40 ShotsContext 12.10

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

38% On target shareContext 30%

10.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

68% Box shareContext 72%

15% ConversionContext 11%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.90 Shots allowedContext 14.10

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.89 BlocksContext 3.78

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

73% Save rateContext 71%

57% PossessionIn forecast 46%

555 PassesContext 427

487 Accurate passesContext 346

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.90 FoulsContext 12.40

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

West Ham

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	West Ham
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan	7.2Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

21J. Hato 5B. Badiashile 23T. Chalobah 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo

49A. Garnacho 8E. Fernández 10C. Palmer 11J. Gittens

9L. Delap

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

West Ham Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

23A. Areola(G)

12E. Diouf 25J. Todibo 15K. Mavropanos 29A. Wan-Bissaka

7C. Summerville 18Mateus Fernandes 28T. Souček 20J. Bowen

19Pablo

11V. Castellanos

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

West Ham Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea-0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
West Ham+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 1.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-3
Scored: 1.55
Conceded: 1.00

West Ham · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.73

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Chelsea	West Ham
Crystal Palace	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Brentford	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A	L 0–2 H
Fulham	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 0–1 H
Manchester City	D 1–1 A	L 0–3 A
Bournemouth	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 2–3 H
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 H
Everton	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Leeds	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 A
Arsenal	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Burnley	W 2–0 A	W 3–2 H
Wolves	W 3–0 H	L 0–3 A
Tottenham	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H
Sunderland	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 HL 0–3 A
Nottingham Forest	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 H
Brighton	L 1–3 H	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
Manchester United	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 A
Points	34 of 66 · 1.55 per game	20 of 66 · 0.91 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

7 Chelsea wins1 draws2 West Ham wins

Goals per game2.30 – 1.00 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

22 Aug 2025West Ham1–5Chelsea
3 Feb 2025Chelsea2–1West Ham
21 Sep 2024West Ham0–3Chelsea
5 May 2024Chelsea5–0West Ham
20 Aug 2023West Ham3–1Chelsea
11 Feb 2023West Ham1–1Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.17
Conceded per game	1.09	1.96
Match goals	2.78	3.13	3.48
Over 1.5	87%	96%
Over 2.5	61%	70%	68%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	61%	61%	57%
Clean sheets	39%	4%
Failed to score	9%	35%
Games	23	23

	Chelsea	West Ham	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.20
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.80	3.00	3.48
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	68%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.45
Corners conceded	4.50	6.27
Match total	10.50	11.72	9.96
Over 8.5	86% 19/22	82% 18/22
Over 9.5	77% 17/22	73% 16/22
Over 10.5	50% 11/22	68% 15/22
Cards
Cards	2.52	1.78
Opponent cards	2.35	1.91
Match total	4.87	3.69	3.84
Over 3.5	65% 15/23	48% 11/23
Over 4.5	61% 14/23	30% 7/23

	Chelsea	West Ham	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.89
Corners conceded	4.80	5.56
Match total	11.20	11.45	9.96
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.90
Opponent cards	2.50	2.70
Match total	5.30	4.60	3.84
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.71

Red cards0.15league 0.10

Cards 5+35%league 38%

Fouls20.9league 21.3

Penalties0.25league 0.20

Home wins35%league 44%

Chelsea21 with this referee

Record10-9-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against6 · 3 Reds2

D30 Nov 25H · Arsenal1–12
W4 Oct 25H · Liverpool2–10
W25 May 25A · Nottingham Forest1–02
W20 Apr 25A · Fulham2–13
W8 Dec 24A · Tottenham4–33

West Ham14 with this referee

Record6-2-6 Cards · opp.1.4 · 0.9 Pens for · against0 · 4 Reds1

L14 Dec 25H · Aston Villa2–31
W27 Feb 25H · Leicester2–00
L29 Dec 24H · Liverpool0–50
L30 Nov 24H · Arsenal2–54
W5 Oct 24H · Ipswich4–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.