Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Chelsea70.9%fair odds 1.41
Draw17.2%fair odds 5.81
West Ham11.9%fair odds 8.42
Expected goals2.52 – 0.96total 3.48
Likeliest score2–09.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
West Ham
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Chelsea ↓ · West Ham → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Chelsea goals, columns West Ham goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.8%10.23
- 2–19.4%10.65
- 3–08.2%12.16
- 3–17.9%12.67
- 1–17.8%12.76
- 1–07.4%13.59
- 4–05.2%19.28
- 4–15.0%20.09
- 2–24.5%22.20
- 3–23.8%26.39
Winning margin
29.0%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 3.45
20.5%
Chelsea by 2
fair 4.88
21.4%
Chelsea by 1
fair 4.67
17.2%
Draw
fair 5.81
7.9%
West Ham by 1
fair 12.66
3.0%
West Ham by 2
fair 33.71
1.0%
West Ham by 3+
fair 98.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Chelsea goals
8%0
20%1
26%2
21%3
25%4+
West Ham goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 70.9% | 68.7% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 17.2% | 18.7% | -1.5 pp |
| West Ham win | 11.9% | 12.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 62.8% | +4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 54.4% | +2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 2.52 | 2.33 | +0.19 |
| Expected goals West Ham | 0.96 | 0.91 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Chelsea win70.9%1.41
- Draw17.2%5.81
- West Ham win11.9%8.42
- Double chance Chelsea or draw88.1%1.13
- Double chance Chelsea or West Ham82.8%1.21
- Double chance West Ham or draw29.1%3.44
- Draw no bet Chelsea85.7%1.17
- Draw no bet West Ham14.3%6.97
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.6%1.15
- Over 2.567.6%1.48
- Over 3.546.0%2.18
- Over 4.527.1%3.69
- Under 1.513.4%7.48
- Under 2.532.4%3.09
- Under 3.554.0%1.85
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.33
- Yes and over 2.549.3%2.03
- Chelsea win and yes36.1%2.77
- Draw and yes13.8%7.27
- West Ham win and yes7.3%13.66
Team goals
- Chelsea over 0.592.0%1.09
- Chelsea over 1.571.7%1.39
- Chelsea over 2.546.2%2.16
- West Ham over 0.561.7%1.62
- West Ham over 1.525.0%4.01
- West Ham over 2.57.3%13.68
- Chelsea clean sheet38.3%2.61
- West Ham clean sheet8.0%12.46
- Chelsea win to nil34.8%2.87
- West Ham win to nil4.6%21.95
Handicap
- Chelsea −1.549.5%2.02
- Chelsea −2.529.0%3.45
- West Ham +1.550.5%1.98
- West Ham +2.571.0%1.41
- West Ham −1.54.0%25.13
- Chelsea +1.596.0%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored233
Favourite won50.6%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.616
Over 2.5 called right53.6%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.2% | 44.1% |
| 40–50% | 87 | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| 50–60% | 62 | 54.6% | 51.6% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.1% | 58.6% |
| 70–80% | 19 | 73.6% | 63.2% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 203 of 233 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6185 | 0.6061 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.3% | 40.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.2% | 51.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 203 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 233 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.