Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Club Brugge KV66.8%fair odds 1.50
Draw20.1%fair odds 4.98
Cercle Brugge13.1%fair odds 7.62
Expected goals2.16 – 0.85total 3.01
Likeliest score2–011.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Club Brugge KV ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Club Brugge KV goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.5%8.73
- 1–010.1%9.86
- 2–19.8%10.22
- 1–19.5%10.48
- 3–08.2%12.13
- 3–17.0%14.21
- 0–05.4%18.52
- 4–04.4%22.47
- 2–24.2%23.96
- 1–23.9%25.86
Winning margin
23.0%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 4.34
20.3%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 4.92
23.4%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.27
20.1%
Draw
fair 4.98
9.0%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 11.14
3.2%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 31.46
1.0%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 102.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Club Brugge KV goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
43%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 66.8% | 66.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 20.1% | 20.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 13.1% | 13.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 57.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 51.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 2.16 | 2.14 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 0.85 | 0.85 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Club Brugge KV win66.8%1.50
- Draw20.1%4.98
- Cercle Brugge win13.1%7.62
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw86.9%1.15
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or Cercle Brugge79.9%1.25
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw33.2%3.01
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV83.6%1.20
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge16.4%6.09
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.7%1.24
- Over 2.557.9%1.73
- Over 3.535.5%2.81
- Over 4.518.7%5.36
- Under 1.519.3%5.19
- Under 2.542.1%2.38
- Under 3.564.5%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Club Brugge KV win and yes29.6%3.38
- Draw and yes14.7%6.81
- Cercle Brugge win and yes7.0%14.33
Team goals
- Club Brugge KV over 0.588.4%1.13
- Club Brugge KV over 1.563.5%1.57
- Club Brugge KV over 2.536.6%2.73
- Cercle Brugge over 0.557.4%1.74
- Cercle Brugge over 1.521.1%4.75
- Cercle Brugge over 2.55.5%18.05
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet42.6%2.35
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet11.6%8.66
- Club Brugge KV win to nil37.2%2.69
- Cercle Brugge win to nil6.1%16.26
Handicap
- Club Brugge KV −1.543.4%2.31
- Club Brugge KV −2.523.0%4.34
- Cercle Brugge +1.556.6%1.77
- Cercle Brugge +2.577.0%1.30
- Cercle Brugge −1.54.2%24.07
- Club Brugge KV +1.595.8%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored17
Favourite won41.2%
Avg chance given to result37.7%
1X2 Brier0.615
Over 2.5 called right58.8%
BTTS called right64.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 39.4% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 43.0% | 27.3% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 55.8% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 63.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 1 of 17 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5055 | 0.4269 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.0% | 46.7% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 1 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 17 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.