Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 54). Como had 5.2 days of rest, AC Milan 4.2 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days5.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Como34%
Draw28%
AC Milan38%
Como34%
Draw27%
AC Milan39%
Como34%
Draw28%
AC Milan38%
Como28%
Draw27%
AC Milan45%
Como34%
Draw27%
AC Milan39%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 77
Team strength
Como
AC Milan
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
72
AttackIn forecast
72
67
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoAC Milan
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
0.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.79
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
68%
Scored inContext
95%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
13.47
ShotsContext
13.84
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.37
Shots in the boxContext
9.47
62%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.82
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.68
3.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.31
BlocksContext
3.44
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
76%
Save rateContext
82%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
495
PassesContext
476
427
Accurate passesContext
417
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.32
FoulsContext
9.74
12.16
Fouls sufferedContext
11.47
2.37
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
60%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.50
ShotsContext
14.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
65%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.89
9.30
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.63
BlocksContext
3.50
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
78%
Save rateContext
84%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
507
PassesContext
469
438
Accurate passesContext
410
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.01
13.80
FoulsContext
9.90
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
AC Milan
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel39 km1,883 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 511 km | 1,883 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
5K. De Winter
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
18C. Nkunku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AC Milan+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-0
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 0.44
AC Milan · Away
2.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-0
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Lecce | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Torino | W 5–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Lazio | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 34 of 57 · 1.79 per game | 40 of 57 · 2.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Como wins0 draws2 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2025AC Milan2–1Como
- 14 Jan 2025Como1–2AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.68 | 0.79 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.37 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 47% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 53% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 5% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Como | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 7.19 | 9.41 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 31% 5/16 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 19% 3/16 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 2/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 3.89 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 14/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 9/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Como | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.22 | 9.90 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.86
Red cards0.12league 0.18
Cards 5+40%league 37%
Fouls24.3league 25.8
Penalties0.36league 0.31
Home wins43%league 37%
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
AC Milan8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W2 Nov 25H · AS Roma1–01
- D5 Oct 25A · Juventus0–02
- D15 Dec 24H · Genoa0–00
- W14 Jan 24H · AS Roma3–12
- W24 Apr 22A · Lazio2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como18 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
AC Milan19 games · scored 30 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
