UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 26 · 20:00 Allianz Stadium, Torino
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,430 kmRest days3 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Juventus—%
Draw—%
Omonia Nicosia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Torino)

Forecast from 11 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Juventus and Omonia Nicosia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

JuventusOmonia Nicosia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
57 AttackIn forecast 34
76 DefenceIn forecast 41
74 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Omonia Nicosia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

JuventusOmonia Nicosia
3.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00
— xGVia Att/Def 1.23
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03
— Goals minus xGContext +0.77
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 100%
16.50 ShotsContext 12.50
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
39% On target shareContext 44%
13.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
80% Box shareContext 42%
21% ConversionContext 16%
— OffsidesContext 1.00
9.50 Shots allowedContext 15.50
2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
1.00 BlocksContext 5.50
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
80% Save rateContext 86%
51% PossessionIn forecast 43%
525 PassesContext 454
463 Accurate passesContext 385
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.20 Team ratingContext 7.22
14.00 FoulsContext 6.50
15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.43
0.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.23
90% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
16.70 ShotsContext 13.25
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25
35% On target shareContext 40%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.25
60% Box shareContext 60%
11% ConversionContext 9%
2.75 OffsidesContext 1.25
8.20 Shots allowedContext 13.25
2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
1.89 BlocksContext 3.50
2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
68% Save rateContext 69%
57% PossessionIn forecast 46%
532 PassesContext 386
466 Accurate passesContext 314
88% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.85 Team ratingContext 6.67
12.60 FoulsContext 9.71
11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.43
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts
Omonia Nicosia
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,430 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 73 · 6 pts vs 3.3 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected
  • W15 OctA · Celje3–01.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celta Vigo1–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Juventus Omonia Nicosia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3Serie A 2026-2027, 23 Nov21.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,430 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.913.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct
25G. Vicario(G)
2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu
29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz
17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González
9R. Kolo Muani
Omonia Nicosia Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Celje (A) 3–0, 15 Oct
40Fabiano(G)
29J. Balkovec 37Ľ. Šatka 5S. Coulibaly 93J. Duverne
14M. Marić 22M. Tankovic 74P. Andreou
7J. Montnor 99L. Diony 11Ewandro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Juventus Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Omonia Nicosia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
5.00
Conceded
0.00
Omonia Nicosia · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Juventus2 games · scored 7 · conceded 1
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
2 76-90
Omonia Nicosia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
8 4 76-90
Omonia Nicosia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2 0-15
4 16-30
2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.