UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Tue, Nov 24 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
Como 12th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
AEK Athens FC 20th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,488 kmRest days3.3 · 20.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Como—%
Draw—%
AEK Athens FC—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Como)

Forecast from 9 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Como and AEK Athens FC. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ComoAEK Athens FC
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
65 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
72 AttackIn forecast 50
67 DefenceIn forecast 57
50 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack—
Defense risk—

AEK Athens FC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ComoAEK Athens FC
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.42
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
— Goals minus xGContext -0.42
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.50 ShotsContext 15.50
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
44% On target shareContext 23%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
58% Box shareContext 59%
24% ConversionContext 7%
— OffsidesContext 2.00
13.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.00 BlocksContext 3.50
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00
67% Save rateContext 57%
51% PossessionIn forecast 48%
542 PassesContext 386
490 Accurate passesContext 328
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.88
13.50 FoulsContext 12.00
14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.03
80% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
19.00 ShotsContext 14.90
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
34% On target shareContext 36%
12.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.00
63% Box shareContext 67%
12% ConversionContext 12%
3.20 OffsidesContext 1.80
13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.40
3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78
2.70 BlocksContext 2.44
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
69% Save rateContext 68%
60% PossessionIn forecast 51%
571 PassesContext 406
513 Accurate passesContext 346
90% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.98
9.70 FoulsContext 13.90
11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
  • D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
  • W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts
AEK Athens FC
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,488 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 52 · 3 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • L14 OctA · Shakhtar Donetsk1–31.1 xPts
  • W8 SepH · Lask Linz1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Como AEK Athens FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.3Serie A 2026-2027, 21 Nov20.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,488 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one4.914

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić
7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla
8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali
9A. Douvikas
AEK Athens FC Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 1–3, 14 Oct
91A. Brignoli(G)
3S. Pilios 44Filipe Relvas 2H. Moukoudi 12L. Rota
11A. Koita 18R. Marin 27M. Vitális 14L. Majer
9L. Jović 90Zine

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Como Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
AEK Athens FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Como · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00
AEK Athens FC · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

ComoAEK Athens FCForecast
Scored per game 3.001.00
Conceded per game 2.001.50
Match goals 5.002.50
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 100%50%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
ComoAEK Athens FCForecast
Scored per game 2.201.50
Conceded per game 1.200.75
Match goals 3.402.25
Over 1.5 90%50%
Over 2.5 70%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 80%25%
Clean sheets 10%75%
Failed to score 20%25%
Games104

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ComoAEK Athens FCLeague
Corners
Corners won1.004.50
Corners conceded5.004.00
Match total6.008.509.71
Over 8.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.502.50
Opponent cards2.501.50
Match total5.004.003.80
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.5100% 2/250% 1/2
ComoAEK Athens FCLeague
Corners
Corners won5.705.60
Corners conceded4.402.80
Match total10.108.409.71
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 10.540% 4/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards1.602.00
Opponent cards2.701.60
Match total4.303.603.80
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Como2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
1 2 46-60
61-75
2 1 76-90
AEK Athens FC2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
2 76-90
Como10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
5 4 16-30
6 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 61-75
5 2 76-90
AEK Athens FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
5 2 0-15
5 16-30
3 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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