Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Como had 7 days of rest, Lecce 6.9 and had to travel 954 km.
Away travel954 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Como70%
Draw20%
Lecce10%
Como67%
Draw20%
Lecce13%
Como70%
Draw20%
Lecce10%
Como63%
Draw23%
Lecce14%
Como70%
Draw19%
Lecce11%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 45
Team strength
Como
Lecce
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
72
AttackIn forecast
36
67
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoLecce
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.65
0.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
73%
Scored inContext
46%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
14.08
ShotsContext
9.77
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.61
35%
On target shareContext
24%
8.96
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
63%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.53
9.27
Shots allowedContext
12.88
3.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.90
BlocksContext
3.62
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
75%
Save rateContext
70%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
521
PassesContext
332
455
Accurate passesContext
252
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.19
FoulsContext
12.27
11.69
Fouls sufferedContext
13.54
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.64
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
90%
Scored inContext
40%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.00
ShotsContext
9.20
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.13
33%
On target shareContext
19%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
69%
Box shareContext
47%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.10
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
2.00
BlocksContext
4.50
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
74%
Save rateContext
74%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
571
PassesContext
322
507
Accurate passesContext
240
89%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.00
FoulsContext
11.60
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km351 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Lecce
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel954 km1,566 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 954 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 351 km | 1,566 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
6M. Caqueret
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
3C. Ndaba
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
25A. Gallo
19L. Banda
29L. Coulibaly
20Y. Ramadani
17Danilo Veiga
16O. Gandelman
99W. Cheddira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lecce+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-2
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 0.69
Lecce · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 42 of 75 · 1.68 per game | 24 of 75 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Como wins0 draws0 Lecce wins
Goals per game2.67 – 0.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 27 Dec 2025Lecce0–3Como
- 19 Apr 2025Lecce0–3Como
- 30 Dec 2024Como2–0Lecce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 0.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.73 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 1.92 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 31% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 12% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 31% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 54% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Como | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.70 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.87 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.26 | 5.48 | |
| Match total | 7.13 | 9.88 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 26% 6/23 | 80% 20/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 4/23 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 3/23 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 1.58 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 3.35 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 18/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Como | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 6.60 | 9.11 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 10% 1/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 3.77
Red cards0.11league 0.20
Cards 5+53%league 37%
Fouls25.9league 25.3
Penalties0.29league 0.31
Home wins44%league 38%
Como1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25H · Cagliari3–11
Lecce5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Sep 25H · Bologna2–24
- D9 Feb 25H · Bologna0–00
- L20 Oct 24H · Fiorentina0–61
- L3 May 23A · Juventus1–22
- D4 Nov 22A · Udinese1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como25 games · scored 39 · conceded 18
8
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
9
3
61-75
9
4
76-90
Lecce26 games · scored 17 · conceded 33
4
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
12
61-75
5
7
76-90
Como10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
