Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cremonese. Cremonese had 6.7 days of rest, AC Milan 6.8 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days6.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cremonese18%
Draw25%
AC Milan57%
Cremonese15%
Draw22%
AC Milan63%
Cremonese18%
Draw26%
AC Milan56%
Cremonese13%
Draw23%
AC Milan64%
Cremonese18%
Draw24%
AC Milan58%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 107
Team strength
Cremonese
AC Milan
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
16
AttackIn forecast
72
30
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseAC Milan
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.77
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
50%
Scored inContext
92%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
8.54
ShotsContext
13.04
3.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.62
37%
On target shareContext
35%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
57%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.37
OffsidesContext
2.08
16.81
Shots allowedContext
10.62
5.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
4.96
BlocksContext
3.33
4.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
76%
Save rateContext
83%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
369
PassesContext
487
287
Accurate passesContext
429
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.88
FoulsContext
9.73
12.54
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.12
0.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
20%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.80
ShotsContext
13.20
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
35%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
58%
Box shareContext
72%
3%
ConversionContext
11%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.44
19.20
Shots allowedContext
10.50
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
5.80
BlocksContext
3.11
4.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
73%
Save rateContext
83%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
365
PassesContext
511
282
Accurate passesContext
452
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.05
13.30
FoulsContext
10.20
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km825 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel75 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 825 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
5S. Luperto
55F. Folino
15M. Bianchetti
3G. Pezzella
29Y. Maleh
27J. Vandeputte
2M. Thorsby
7A. Zerbin
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
5K. De Winter
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
11C. Pulišić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- AC Milan+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-4
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.25
AC Milan · Away
2.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-0
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 0.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 21 of 75 · 0.84 per game | 54 of 75 · 2.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Cremonese wins2 draws0 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 23 Aug 2025AC Milan1–2Cremonese
- 3 May 2023AC Milan1–1Cremonese
- 8 Nov 2022Cremonese0–0AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 2.35 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 46% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 54% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 8% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Cremonese | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.32 | 4.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.68 | 4.39 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.13 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 17/25 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.54 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.73 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 11/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 6/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cremonese | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.30 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.78 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 3.78
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 37%
Fouls25.0league 25.3
Penalties0.18league 0.31
Home wins36%league 38%
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L1 Feb 26H · Inter0–23
- L14 Jan 23H · Monza2–32
AC Milan11 with this referee
Record2-6-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D11 Jan 26A · Fiorentina1–13
- L18 Jan 25A · Juventus0–22
- D31 Aug 24A · Lazio2–22
- D14 Apr 24A · Sassuolo3–31
- D27 Jan 24H · Bologna2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese26 games · scored 21 · conceded 36
3
7
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
7
61-75
7
5
76-90
AC Milan26 games · scored 41 · conceded 20
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
3
31-45
10
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
9
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 3 · conceded 18
1
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
