Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Cremonese had 4.1 days of rest, Cagliari 5.9 and had to travel 661 km.
Away travel661 kmRest days4.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cremonese39%
Draw29%
Cagliari32%
Cremonese40%
Draw27%
Cagliari33%
Cremonese39%
Draw29%
Cagliari32%
Cremonese32%
Draw29%
Cagliari39%
Cremonese40%
Draw27%
Cagliari33%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
Cremonese
Cagliari
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
16
AttackIn forecast
31
30
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseCagliari
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
61%
Scored inContext
67%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.11
ShotsContext
9.56
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
38%
On target shareContext
36%
4.82
Shots in the boxContext
5.94
56%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.38
16.06
Shots allowedContext
13.17
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
4.76
BlocksContext
3.88
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
79%
Save rateContext
75%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
368
PassesContext
370
287
Accurate passesContext
298
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.94
FoulsContext
14.61
12.39
Fouls sufferedContext
14.61
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
9.70
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
36%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
58%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
4.78
BlocksContext
3.33
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
80%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
380
PassesContext
370
294
Accurate passesContext
297
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.30
FoulsContext
15.90
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel661 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 661 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 358 km | 1,320 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
11D. Johnsen
38W. Bondo
32M. Payero
22R. Floriani Mussolini
90F. Bonazzoli
10J. Vardy
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
26Y. Mina
6S. Luperto
2M. Palestra
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
28G. Zappa
10G. Gaetano
77Zito Luvumbo
29G. Borrelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cagliari+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.38
Cagliari · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Juventus | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 1–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 3–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 21 of 54 · 1.17 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.44 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 56% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 33% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Cremonese | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.41 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.53 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.94 | 8.51 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.44 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Cremonese | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 8.89 | 8.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.86
Red cards0.25league 0.16
Cards 5+25%league 37%
Fouls23.9league 25.8
Penalties0.38league 0.31
Home wins38%league 38%
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
Cagliari2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Aug 25A · Napoli0–11
- L24 Jan 25A · Torino0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese18 games · scored 18 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
6
2
76-90
Cagliari18 games · scored 19 · conceded 25
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
