Crystal Palace vs Manchester United – 30 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 30 · 12:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace 6th · 20 pts · 12 played DLWDW

1–2Full time

Manchester United 12th · 18 pts · 12 played WWDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Manchester United. Crystal Palace had 7.9 days of rest, Manchester United 5.7 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days7.9 · 5.7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Crystal Palace48%

Draw25%

Manchester United26%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.18

Crystal Palace47%

Draw26%

Manchester United27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Crystal Palace47%

Draw25%

Manchester United27%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.21

Crystal Palace41%

Draw26%

Manchester United33%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.33

Crystal Palace48%

Draw26%

Manchester United26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.11

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 130

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Manchester United

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

64 AttackIn forecast 72

54 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Manchester United

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.58

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

67% Scored inContext 75%

50% Clean sheetsContext 8%

12.08 ShotsContext 15.25

4.42 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17

37% On target shareContext 34%

8.42 Shots in the boxContext 10.64

70% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.90 OffsidesContext 1.58

10.67 Shots allowedContext 10.83

3.27 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.92

2.82 BlocksContext 2.73

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

74% Save rateContext 60%

43% PossessionIn forecast 52%

364 PassesContext 454

282 Accurate passesContext 370

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.25 FoulsContext 9.82

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 12.08

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.40 ShotsContext 15.10

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 34%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.44

71% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.70

8.70 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.13 BlocksContext 2.44

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

71% Save rateContext 61%

47% PossessionIn forecast 52%

393 PassesContext 458

306 Accurate passesContext 372

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.50 FoulsContext 9.78

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km363 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest5.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov	5.7Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	363 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.3	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Henderson(G)

6A. Guéhi 5M. Lacroix 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 18Daichi Kamada 20A. Wharton 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 7I. Sarr

14J. Mateta

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 4M. de Ligt 15L. Yoro

2Diogo Dalot 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 16A. Diallo

7Mason Mount 19B. Mbeumo

11J. Zirkzee

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace+0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Manchester United-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home 1.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.83

Manchester United · Away 1.00points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Crystal Palace	Manchester United
Brighton	D 0–0 H	W 4–2 H
Brentford	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Everton	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Liverpool	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Sunderland	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Chelsea	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 H
Points	10 of 24 · 1.25 per game	13 of 24 · 1.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Crystal Palace wins3 draws2 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.30 – 0.50 Over 2.530% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 30%

2 Feb 2025Manchester United0–2Crystal Palace
21 Sep 2024Crystal Palace0–0Manchester United
6 May 2024Crystal Palace4–0Manchester United
30 Sep 2023Manchester United0–1Crystal Palace
4 Feb 2023Manchester United2–1Crystal Palace
18 Jan 2023Crystal Palace1–1Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.58
Conceded per game	0.75	1.58
Match goals	2.08	3.17	2.86
Over 1.5	67%	83%
Over 2.5	42%	67%	54%
Over 3.5	8%	42%
Both teams scored	42%	67%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	8%
Failed to score	33%	25%
Games	12	12

	Crystal Palace	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.80
Conceded per game	0.80	1.70
Match goals	2.30	3.50	2.86
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	4.25
Corners conceded	5.50	4.75
Match total	9.33	9.00	9.94
Over 8.5	50% 6/12	42% 5/12
Over 9.5	50% 6/12	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	50% 6/12	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	1.83	1.33
Opponent cards	2.42	2.58
Match total	4.25	3.91	3.83
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	58% 7/12
Over 4.5	67% 8/12	42% 5/12

	Crystal Palace	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.20
Corners conceded	3.40	4.40
Match total	7.90	8.60	9.94
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	2.60
Match total	3.80	4.00	3.83
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 130 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 3.72

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+41%league 42%

Fouls22.9league 21.9

Penalties0.24league 0.20

Home wins46%league 52%

Crystal Palace10 with this referee

Record3-3-4 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 2

W22 Feb 25A · Fulham2–03
D7 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–21
L24 Aug 24H · West Ham0–21
W30 Dec 23H · Brentford3–10
W3 Sep 23H · Wolves3–21

Manchester United11 with this referee

Record5-4-2 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L20 Apr 25H · Wolves0–12
D3 Nov 24H · Chelsea1–16
D6 Oct 24A · Aston Villa0–05
W16 Aug 24H · Fulham1–02
W15 May 24H · Newcastle3–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.