Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace
6th · 20 pts · 12 played
DLWDW
1–2Full time
Manchester United
12th · 18 pts · 12 played
WWDDL
Crystal Palace48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
Manchester United26.4%fair odds 3.79
Expected goals1.68 – 1.18total 2.86
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Manchester United → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Manchester United goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.36
- 2–19.5%10.50
- 1–09.0%11.12
- 2–08.0%12.44
- 1–26.7%14.86
- 0–06.3%15.81
- 0–16.2%16.20
- 2–25.6%17.73
- 3–15.3%18.79
- 3–04.5%22.25
Winning margin
11.2%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 8.96
14.9%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 6.72
22.2%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.50
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
15.5%
Manchester United by 1
fair 6.44
7.4%
Manchester United by 2
fair 13.47
3.4%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 29.22
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Crystal Palace goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Manchester United goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 48.3% | 48.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Manchester United win | 26.4% | 25.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 50.8% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 54.1% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 1.68 | 1.60 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.18 | 1.11 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win48.3%2.07
- Draw25.3%3.95
- Manchester United win26.4%3.79
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw73.6%1.36
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Manchester United74.7%1.34
- Double chance Manchester United or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace64.7%1.55
- Draw no bet Manchester United35.3%2.83
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.5%1.84
- Over 3.532.2%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.17
- Under 1.521.5%4.65
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.8%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
- Crystal Palace win and yes24.0%4.16
- Draw and yes19.0%5.26
- Manchester United win and yes14.0%7.14
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.581.3%1.23
- Crystal Palace over 1.549.9%2.00
- Crystal Palace over 2.523.7%4.23
- Manchester United over 0.569.4%1.44
- Manchester United over 1.533.2%3.01
- Manchester United over 2.511.7%8.54
- Crystal Palace clean sheet30.6%3.27
- Manchester United clean sheet18.7%5.35
- Crystal Palace win to nil24.3%4.12
- Manchester United win to nil12.4%8.08
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.526.0%3.84
- Crystal Palace −2.511.2%8.96
- Manchester United +1.574.0%1.35
- Manchester United +2.588.8%1.13
- Manchester United −1.510.8%9.22
- Crystal Palace +1.589.2%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored125
Favourite won56.0%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.588
Over 2.5 called right58.4%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 18 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 49 | 44.8% | 49.0% |
| 50–60% | 32 | 54.2% | 59.4% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 72.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 95 of 125 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5840 | 0.5683 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 56.8% | 55.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 95 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 125 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.