Bundesliga Gameweek 26 Sat, Mar 14 · 14:30 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main
Eintracht Frankfurt 7th · 35 pts · 25 played
1–0Full time
1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 14 pts · 25 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Eintracht Frankfurt67.9%fair odds 1.47
Draw18.9%fair odds 5.30
1. FC Heidenheim13.2%fair odds 7.56
Expected goals2.33 – 0.94total 3.27
Likeliest score2–010.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Eintracht Frankfurt

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · 1. FC Heidenheim →0123456+
04.33.11.70.50.10.00.0
18.48.83.91.20.30.10.0
210.39.74.61.40.30.10.0
38.07.53.51.10.30.00.0
44.74.42.10.60.20.00.0
52.22.01.00.30.10.00.0
6+1.21.20.50.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns 1. FC Heidenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–010.3%9.70
  • 2–19.7%10.31
  • 1–18.8%11.38
  • 1–08.4%11.87
  • 3–08.0%12.51
  • 3–17.5%13.29
  • 4–04.7%21.50
  • 2–24.6%21.90
  • 4–14.4%22.85
  • 0–04.3%23.51

Winning margin

25.3% Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+ fair 3.96
20.2% Eintracht Frankfurt by 2 fair 4.94
22.4% Eintracht Frankfurt by 1 fair 4.47
18.9% Draw fair 5.30
8.8% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 11.37
3.3% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 30.22
1.1% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 89.29

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+

Eintracht Frankfurt goals

10%0
23%1
26%2
20%3
21%4+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Eintracht Frankfurt win 67.9% 66.2% +1.7 pp
Draw 18.9% 20.0% -1.1 pp
1. FC Heidenheim win 13.2% 13.7% -0.5 pp
Over 2.5 63.4% 59.5% +3.8 pp
Both teams score 55.5% 53.1% +2.4 pp
Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt 2.33 2.19 +0.14
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 0.94 0.90 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Eintracht Frankfurt win67.9%1.47
  • Draw18.9%5.30
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win13.2%7.56
  • Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw86.8%1.15
  • Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or 1. FC Heidenheim81.1%1.23
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw32.1%3.11
  • Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt83.7%1.19
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim16.3%6.13

Goals

  • Over 0.595.7%1.04
  • Over 1.584.2%1.19
  • Over 2.563.4%1.58
  • Over 3.541.2%2.42
  • Over 4.523.1%4.32
  • Under 1.515.8%6.32
  • Under 2.536.6%2.73
  • Under 3.558.8%1.70

Both teams to score

  • Yes55.5%1.80
  • No44.5%2.25
  • Yes and over 2.546.7%2.14
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes33.1%3.02
  • Draw and yes14.6%6.84
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes7.7%12.97

Team goals

  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.590.2%1.11
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.567.5%1.48
  • Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.541.1%2.43
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.561.0%1.64
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.524.3%4.12
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.57.0%14.33
  • Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet39.0%2.56
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet9.8%10.24
  • Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil34.8%2.88
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil5.5%18.14

Handicap

  • Eintracht Frankfurt −1.545.5%2.20
  • Eintracht Frankfurt −2.525.3%3.96
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.554.5%1.84
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +2.574.7%1.34
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.54.4%22.58
  • Eintracht Frankfurt +1.595.6%1.05

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored226 Favourite won57.1% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.555 Over 2.5 called right62.4% BTTS called right57.1%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3138.3%38.7%
40–50%6845.0%44.1%
50–60%6455.2%62.5%
60–70%3564.5%71.4%
70–80%1874.2%77.8%
80%+1085.9%80.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 187 of 226 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55280.5475
Avg chance given to result43.6%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%58.3%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 187 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 226 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.