Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 35 pts · 25 played
DWLWD
1–0Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 14 pts · 25 played
LLDLL
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were clear favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Eintracht Frankfurt. Eintracht Frankfurt had 6 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 192 km.
Away travel192 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Eintracht Frankfurt68%
Draw19%
1. FC Heidenheim13%
Eintracht Frankfurt65%
Draw21%
1. FC Heidenheim14%
Eintracht Frankfurt68%
Draw19%
1. FC Heidenheim13%
Eintracht Frankfurt60%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim18%
Eintracht Frankfurt66%
Draw20%
1. FC Heidenheim14%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 101
Team strength
Eintracht Frankfurt1. FC Heidenheim
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
54
AttackIn forecast
48
37
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht Frankfurt1. FC Heidenheim
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.28
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
88%
Scored inContext
60%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.24
ShotsContext
11.28
4.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
39%
On target shareContext
29%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.61
70%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.81
OffsidesContext
2.32
12.12
Shots allowedContext
15.12
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
2.92
BlocksContext
3.83
2.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
58%
Save rateContext
59%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
489
PassesContext
356
410
Accurate passesContext
275
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.96
FoulsContext
9.88
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.36
1.72
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.30
ShotsContext
12.00
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
46%
On target shareContext
26%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
72%
Box shareContext
68%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.50
Shots allowedContext
14.80
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.89
BlocksContext
3.78
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
67%
Save rateContext
61%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
488
PassesContext
357
414
Accurate passesContext
271
85%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.80
FoulsContext
9.30
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel192 km996 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 192 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 785 km | 996 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
5A. Amenda
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
21N. Brown
8F. Chaïbi
16H. Larsson
29Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
19J. Bahoya
20R. Doan
25A. Kalimuendo
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
5B. Gimber
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
20L. Kerber
22A. Ibrahimović
11B. Zivzivadze
8E. Dinkçi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-10
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | W 2–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–6 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 A | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 4–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 34 of 72 · 1.42 per game | 13 of 72 · 0.54 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins1 draws0 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 1 Nov 20251. FC Heidenheim1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 13 Apr 2025Eintracht Frankfurt3–01. FC Heidenheim
- 1 Dec 20241. FC Heidenheim0–4Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2 Mar 20241. FC Heidenheim1–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 8 Oct 2023Eintracht Frankfurt2–01. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.96 | 2.28 | |
| Match goals | 3.88 | 3.24 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 68% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 40% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.35 | 4.96 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 9.70 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 1.84 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 3.36 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.89 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.60 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.72
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+44%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 20.6
Penalties0.33league 0.37
Home wins54%league 46%
Eintracht Frankfurt11 with this referee
Record5-4-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- D30 Nov 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–11
- W23 Aug 25H · Werder Bremen4–11
- W11 Jan 25A · FC St. Pauli1–03
- D27 Oct 24A · Union Berlin1–13
- W14 Sep 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
1. FC Heidenheim4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Mar 25H · Holstein Kiel3–11
- L10 Nov 24H · VfL Wolfsburg1–31
- L17 Feb 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–22
- L11 Nov 23A · Bayern München2–40
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt25 games · scored 48 · conceded 49
4
7
0-15
9
7
16-30
9
6
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
11
15
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim25 games · scored 24 · conceded 57
1
3
0-15
3
8
16-30
4
14
31-45
5
11
46-60
4
9
61-75
7
12
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
