Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 31 pts · 23 played
LLDWL
2–0Full time
SC Freiburg
7th · 33 pts · 23 played
WLWLW
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Eintracht Frankfurt. Eintracht Frankfurt had 8.1 days of rest, SC Freiburg 7.1 and had to travel 243 km.
Away travel243 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg29%
Eintracht Frankfurt41%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg32%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg29%
Eintracht Frankfurt37%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg36%
Eintracht Frankfurt44%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg29%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyChristian Dingert
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 67
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtSC Freiburg
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
54
AttackIn forecast
63
37
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtSC Freiburg
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
91%
Scored inContext
74%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.26
ShotsContext
12.22
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
39%
On target shareContext
34%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
70%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.53
12.52
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.91
BlocksContext
4.55
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
56%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
479
PassesContext
397
398
Accurate passesContext
322
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.13
FoulsContext
9.26
9.61
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.40
ShotsContext
11.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
48%
On target shareContext
33%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
74%
Box shareContext
68%
21%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
14.60
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.33
BlocksContext
5.75
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
64%
Save rateContext
80%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
437
PassesContext
344
360
Accurate passesContext
270
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.00
FoulsContext
10.00
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km609 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel243 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 243 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 609 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
34P. Collins
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
21N. Brown
16H. Larsson
19J. Bahoya
6O. Højlund
27M. Götze
25A. Kalimuendo
9J. Burkardt
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
14Y. Suzuki
31I. Matanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 1.64
SC Freiburg · Away
0.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | L 2–6 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 HW 6–4 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 HW 3–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–6 A | L 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 4–3 A | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 30 of 66 · 1.36 per game | 32 of 66 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins4 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.22
Over 2.567%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 19 Oct 2025SC Freiburg2–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17 May 2025SC Freiburg1–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 14 Jan 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–1SC Freiburg
- 18 Feb 2024SC Freiburg3–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 24 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt0–0SC Freiburg
- 27 May 2023Eintracht Frankfurt2–1SC Freiburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 4.13 | 3.09 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 65% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 61% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 61% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.24 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 9.48 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 4.31 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 14/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 10.11 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian Dingert Germany · 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 3.77
Red cards0.13league 0.16
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls23.4league 20.7
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins37%league 46%
Eintracht Frankfurt8 with this referee
Record0-4-4
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D1 Nov 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–12
- D11 May 25H · FC St. Pauli2–22
- D8 Feb 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–13
- L5 May 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–50
- L17 Dec 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–31
SC Freiburg7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L1 Sep 24A · Bayern München0–20
- L18 May 24A · Union Berlin1–24
- W30 Mar 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–00
- D13 Jan 24H · Union Berlin0–00
- W28 Jan 23H · FC Augsburg3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt23 games · scored 46 · conceded 49
4
7
0-15
9
7
16-30
9
6
31-45
9
7
46-60
5
7
61-75
10
15
76-90
SC Freiburg23 games · scored 34 · conceded 37
7
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
14
46-60
5
2
61-75
8
7
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 18 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
9
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
