Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 20 pts · 11 played
DWDWW
1–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
15th · 8 pts · 11 played
LWLLL
Eintracht Frankfurt60.8%fair odds 1.65
Draw22.0%fair odds 4.55
VfL Wolfsburg17.3%fair odds 5.79
Expected goals2.03 – 0.99total 3.02
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.66
- 2–010.0%9.96
- 2–110.0%10.04
- 1–09.4%10.65
- 3–06.8%14.76
- 3–16.7%14.88
- 0–05.4%18.47
- 2–24.9%20.25
- 1–24.9%20.51
- 0–14.3%23.08
Winning margin
18.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 5.32
18.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 5.35
23.3%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.29
22.0%
Draw
fair 4.55
11.1%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 8.97
4.5%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 22.31
1.6%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 60.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 60.8% | 59.2% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 23.2% | -1.2 pp |
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 17.3% | 17.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 53.8% | +4.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 52.3% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.03 | 1.89 | +0.13 |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 0.99 | 0.94 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eintracht Frankfurt win60.8%1.65
- Draw22.0%4.55
- VfL Wolfsburg win17.3%5.79
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw82.7%1.21
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or VfL Wolfsburg78.0%1.28
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw39.2%2.55
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt77.9%1.28
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg22.1%4.52
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.9%1.24
- Over 2.558.1%1.72
- Over 3.535.7%2.80
- Over 4.518.8%5.33
- Under 1.519.1%5.23
- Under 2.541.9%2.38
- Under 3.564.3%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.81
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.544.8%2.23
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes29.1%3.44
- Draw and yes16.5%6.05
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes9.5%10.54
Team goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.586.8%1.15
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.560.1%1.66
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.533.0%3.03
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.562.9%1.59
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.526.1%3.83
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.57.9%12.69
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet37.1%2.70
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet13.2%7.58
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil31.7%3.16
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil7.8%12.86
Handicap
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.537.5%2.67
- Eintracht Frankfurt −2.518.8%5.32
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.562.5%1.60
- VfL Wolfsburg +2.581.2%1.23
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.56.1%16.33
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.593.9%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored106
Favourite won57.5%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.543
Over 2.5 called right63.2%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 33 | 45.1% | 42.4% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 54.6% | 55.6% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.5% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 90.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 88 of 106 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5228 | 0.5300 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.9% | 44.0% |
| Favourite won | 60.2% | 60.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 88 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 106 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.