Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eintracht Frankfurt
7th · 20 pts · 11 played
DWDWW
1–1Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
15th · 8 pts · 11 played
LWLLL
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were clear favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 40). Eintracht Frankfurt had 8 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 8.1 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Eintracht Frankfurt61%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
Eintracht Frankfurt59%
Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg18%
Eintracht Frankfurt61%
Draw22%
VfL Wolfsburg17%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg23%
Eintracht Frankfurt59%
Draw23%
VfL Wolfsburg18%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 92
Team strength
Eintracht FrankfurtVfL Wolfsburg
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
54
AttackIn forecast
50
37
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtVfL Wolfsburg
2.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.91
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.98
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
91%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
13.00
ShotsContext
12.36
4.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.18
38%
On target shareContext
34%
8.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
65%
Box shareContext
59%
19%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.60
10.91
Shots allowedContext
14.09
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
1.91
BlocksContext
3.90
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
56%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
513
PassesContext
394
432
Accurate passesContext
317
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.91
FoulsContext
10.55
10.09
Fouls sufferedContext
10.55
1.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.90
ShotsContext
12.20
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
34%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
66%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.80
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
2.80
BlocksContext
4.22
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
61%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
486
PassesContext
394
406
Accurate passesContext
317
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.76
7.80
FoulsContext
10.60
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel295 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 305 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
21N. Brown
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
13R. Kristensen
15E. Skhiri
8F. Chaïbi
19J. Bahoya
27M. Götze
20R. Doan
7A. Knauff
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
14J. Seelt
26S. Kumbedi
27M. Arnold
31Y. Gerhardt
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
24C. Eriksen
9M. Amoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
1.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Eintracht Frankfurt | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | W 4–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 3–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins4 draws3 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets0% · 38%
- 2 Feb 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 14 Sep 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 25 Feb 2024Eintracht Frankfurt2–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 30 Sep 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 5 Mar 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 10 Sep 2022Eintracht Frankfurt0–1VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.45 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.91 | |
| Match goals | 4.45 | 3.09 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 64% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 64% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 7.18 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 11.18 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.64 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 7.70 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 11.60 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 3.60 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 3.96
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 21.7
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins53%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt10 with this referee
Record5-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W23 Aug 25H · Werder Bremen4–11
- W11 Jan 25A · FC St. Pauli1–03
- D27 Oct 24A · Union Berlin1–13
- W14 Sep 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
- L3 Dec 23A · FC Augsburg1–21
VfL Wolfsburg6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L6 Apr 25A · Union Berlin0–11
- W10 Nov 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–16
- L14 Sep 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–21
- L5 Feb 23H · Bayern München2–42
- L14 Aug 22A · Bayern München0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht Frankfurt11 games · scored 27 · conceded 22
2
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
9
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg11 games · scored 13 · conceded 21
3
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
3
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
