Süper Lig Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 7 · 12:00 Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Alanyaspor 9th · 12 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel892 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Erzurumspor FK—%
Draw—%
Alanyaspor—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Erzurum)

Forecast from 20 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Erzurumspor FKAlanyaspor
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
27 Current StrengthIn forecast 24
17 AttackIn forecast 18
38 DefenceIn forecast 24
56 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Alanyaspor

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Erzurumspor FKAlanyaspor
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 0.96
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
50% Scored inContext 75%
50% Clean sheetsContext 38%
9.43 ShotsContext 10.88
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25
35% On target shareContext 30%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 6.75
63% Box shareContext 61%
8% ConversionContext 9%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.14
11.29 Shots allowedContext 15.00
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88
2.20 BlocksContext 4.38
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
75% Save rateContext 80%
46% PossessionIn forecast 42%
409 PassesContext 334
341 Accurate passesContext 270
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.93
11.71 FoulsContext 12.13
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
50% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 30%
9.43 ShotsContext 11.00
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
35% On target shareContext 35%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
63% Box shareContext 58%
8% ConversionContext 11%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.13
11.29 Shots allowedContext 14.20
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.20 BlocksContext 4.10
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
75% Save rateContext 78%
46% PossessionIn forecast 44%
409 PassesContext 354
341 Accurate passesContext 291
83% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.92
11.71 FoulsContext 12.30
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Erzurumspor FK
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km888 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts
Alanyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel892 km953 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Fenerbahce0–30.5 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Erzurumspor FK0–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Çorum FK2–11.0 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Goztepe2–21.6 xPts
  • W7 SepA · Rizespor1–01.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Erzurumspor FK Alanyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 28 Feb7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km892 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways888 km953 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu
Alanyaspor Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Fenerbahce (A) 0–3, 17 Oct
48Paulo Victor(G)
20F. Aksoy 5F. Aliti 3Nuno Lima
11Ruan 55B. Gezek 42G. Makouta 94F. Hadërgjonaj
7Ibrahim Kaya 17A. Usluoğlu 16U. Hwang

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Alanyaspor Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Erzurumspor FK · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Alanyaspor · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentErzurumspor FKAlanyaspor
Eyüpspor W 2–0 H L 1–2 A
Besiktas L 0–3 A W 1–0 H
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Erzurumspor FK wins1 draws0 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%
  • 10 Oct 2026Alanyaspor0–0Erzurumspor FK

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Erzurumspor FKAlanyasporForecast
Scored per game 0.631.00
Conceded per game 1.381.13
Match goals 2.002.13
Over 1.5 63%63%
Over 2.5 38%50%
Over 3.5 13%13%
Both teams scored 13%50%
Clean sheets 50%38%
Failed to score 50%25%
Games88
Erzurumspor FKAlanyasporForecast
Scored per game 0.631.20
Conceded per game 1.381.20
Match goals 2.002.40
Over 1.5 63%70%
Over 2.5 38%60%
Over 3.5 13%20%
Both teams scored 13%60%
Clean sheets 50%30%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Erzurumspor FKAlanyasporLeague
Corners
Corners won3.434.71
Corners conceded3.144.14
Match total6.578.859.12
Over 8.50% 0/743% 3/7
Over 9.50% 0/743% 3/7
Over 10.50% 0/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.381.38
Opponent cards2.132.13
Match total3.513.514.04
Over 3.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 4.550% 4/838% 3/8
Erzurumspor FKAlanyasporLeague
Corners
Corners won3.434.71
Corners conceded3.144.14
Match total6.578.859.12
Over 8.50% 0/743% 3/7
Over 9.50% 0/743% 3/7
Over 10.50% 0/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.381.30
Opponent cards2.132.00
Match total3.513.304.04
Over 3.550% 4/860% 6/10
Over 4.550% 4/830% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Alanyaspor8 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 46-60
6 4 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Istanbul Basaksehir Konyaspor Mar 712:00 Fenerbahce Rizespor Mar 712:00 Goztepe Eyüpspor Mar 712:00 Trabzonspor Samsunspor Mar 712:00 Kasimpasa Galatasaray Mar 712:00 Erzurumspor FK Alanyaspor Mar 712:00 Amed Genclerbirligi Mar 712:00 Çorum FK Gazişehir Gaziantep Mar 712:00 Kocaelispor Besiktas Mar 712:00