Espanyol
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Espanyol43.2%fair odds 2.32
Draw27.9%fair odds 3.58
Rayo Vallecano28.9%fair odds 3.46
Expected goals1.40 – 1.10total 2.51
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Espanyol ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Espanyol goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.53
- 1–010.8%9.28
- 2–18.9%11.28
- 0–08.8%11.35
- 0–18.3%12.03
- 2–08.0%12.44
- 1–27.0%14.37
- 0–25.0%20.18
- 2–24.9%20.45
- 3–14.2%24.09
Winning margin
7.9%
Espanyol by 3+
fair 12.71
13.1%
Espanyol by 2
fair 7.65
22.2%
Espanyol by 1
fair 4.50
27.9%
Draw
fair 3.58
17.3%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 5.77
8.1%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 12.40
3.5%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 28.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Espanyol goals
25%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 43.2% | 45.1% | -1.9 pp |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.6% | +1.4 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 28.9% | 28.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 50.8% | -5.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.1% | 54.8% | -3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Espanyol | 1.40 | 1.54 | -0.13 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.10 | 1.17 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Espanyol win43.2%2.32
- Draw27.9%3.58
- Rayo Vallecano win28.9%3.46
- Double chance Espanyol or draw71.1%1.41
- Double chance Espanyol or Rayo Vallecano72.1%1.39
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw56.8%1.76
- Draw no bet Espanyol59.9%1.67
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano40.1%2.50
Goals
- Over 0.591.2%1.10
- Over 1.572.1%1.39
- Over 2.545.8%2.18
- Over 3.524.4%4.10
- Over 4.511.0%9.10
- Under 1.527.9%3.58
- Under 2.554.2%1.85
- Under 3.575.6%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes51.1%1.96
- No48.9%2.04
- Yes and over 2.537.8%2.65
- Espanyol win and yes18.8%5.31
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes13.2%7.60
Team goals
- Espanyol over 0.575.5%1.33
- Espanyol over 1.541.0%2.44
- Espanyol over 2.516.8%5.96
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.566.8%1.50
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.530.2%3.31
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.510.0%9.98
- Espanyol clean sheet33.2%3.01
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet24.5%4.08
- Espanyol win to nil24.4%4.10
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil15.7%6.36
Handicap
- Espanyol −1.520.9%4.77
- Espanyol −2.57.9%12.71
- Rayo Vallecano +1.579.1%1.27
- Rayo Vallecano +2.592.1%1.09
- Rayo Vallecano −1.511.6%8.65
- Espanyol +1.588.4%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored149
Favourite won55.7%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right54.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 37.8% | 45.0% |
| 40–50% | 69 | 44.3% | 46.4% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.3% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.4% | 63.2% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.0% | 92.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 118 of 149 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5572 | 0.5506 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 43.0% |
| Favourite won | 57.6% | 57.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 118 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 149 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.