Espanyol vs Rayo Vallecano – 7 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 7 · 17:30 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 6th · 24 pts · 14 played WLLWW

1–0Full time

Rayo Vallecano 11th · 17 pts · 14 played WLDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Espanyol were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Espanyol had 7 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 5.9 and had to travel 497 km.

Away travel497 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Espanyol43%

Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano29%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.10

Espanyol44%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.18

Espanyol42%

Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano30%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.12

Espanyol36%

Draw28%

Rayo Vallecano35%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.24

Espanyol45%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.17

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 44

Team strength

Espanyol

Rayo Vallecano

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

36 AttackIn forecast 61

51 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Rayo Vallecano

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.93

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.07

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

79% Scored inContext 57%

36% Clean sheetsContext 36%

13.07 ShotsContext 12.64

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

34% On target shareContext 33%

8.36 Shots in the boxContext 7.57

64% Box shareContext 59%

10% ConversionContext 7%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.27

12.79 Shots allowedContext 11.29

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.71 BlocksContext 3.71

3.62 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17

78% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 53%

356 PassesContext 436

287 Accurate passesContext 367

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.81

13.79 FoulsContext 12.64

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.21

1.79 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.10 ShotsContext 13.90

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

34% On target shareContext 29%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

65% Box shareContext 56%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.57

11.80 Shots allowedContext 11.60

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.60 BlocksContext 4.20

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

78% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 54%

359 PassesContext 434

292 Accurate passesContext 366

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.20 FoulsContext 13.30

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,801 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rayo Vallecano

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel497 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	497 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,801 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

10Pol Lozano 4Urko González

11Pere Milla 8Edu Expósito 24T. Dolan

9R. Fernández Jaén

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 2A. Rațiu

17Unai López 23Óscar Valentín

21Fran Pérez 15Gerard Gumbau 7Isi Palazón

19Jorge de Frutos

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol+0.9 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Rayo Vallecano-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 2.00points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.25

Rayo Vallecano · Away 1.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-4
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Espanyol	Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Sevilla	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 0–4 A
Alaves	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Oviedo	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
Girona	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 A
Valencia	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Real Sociedad	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Atletico Madrid	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Points	18 of 33 · 1.64 per game	13 of 33 · 1.18 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Espanyol wins0 draws3 Rayo Vallecano wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets17% · 50%

4 Apr 2025Rayo Vallecano0–4Espanyol
31 Aug 2024Espanyol2–1Rayo Vallecano
21 May 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Espanyol
19 Aug 2022Espanyol0–2Rayo Vallecano
21 Apr 2022Espanyol0–1Rayo Vallecano
5 Dec 2021Rayo Vallecano1–0Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	0.93
Conceded per game	1.14	1.07
Match goals	2.43	2.00	2.51
Over 1.5	71%	57%
Over 2.5	50%	29%	46%
Over 3.5	21%	21%
Both teams scored	50%	36%	51%
Clean sheets	36%	36%
Failed to score	21%	43%
Games	14	14

	Espanyol	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.90
Conceded per game	1.10	1.00
Match goals	2.10	1.90	2.51
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	4.14	6.36
Corners conceded	4.64	5.21
Match total	8.78	11.57	9.68
Over 8.5	36% 5/14	86% 12/14
Over 9.5	36% 5/14	71% 10/14
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	64% 9/14
Cards
Cards	1.86	2.29
Opponent cards	2.21	1.50
Match total	4.07	3.79	4.32
Over 3.5	64% 9/14	57% 8/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	43% 6/14

	Espanyol	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.70
Corners conceded	4.50	6.80
Match total	9.50	12.50	9.68
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.50
Opponent cards	2.20	2.00
Match total	3.80	4.50	4.32
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.39league 4.08

Red cards0.32league 0.27

Cards 5+48%league 46%

Fouls24.2league 24.7

Penalties0.23league 0.34

Home wins50%league 47%

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

Rayo Vallecano

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.