Estoril vs SC Braga – 19 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 15 Fri, Dec 19 · 20:15 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 13th · 14 pts · 14 played WWLDL

1–0Full time

SC Braga 4th · 25 pts · 14 played LWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 27). Estoril had 5.2 days of rest, SC Braga 4.1 and had to travel 327 km.

Away travel327 kmRest days5.2 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 3

Estoril22%

Draw25%

SC Braga53%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.71

Estoril22%

Draw25%

SC Braga52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.71

Estoril22%

Draw25%

SC Braga53%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.71

Estoril17%

Draw23%

SC Braga60%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.92

Estoril23%

Draw25%

SC Braga52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.71

Over 2.5 51% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 7.7
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 7

Team strength

Estoril

SC Braga

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

21 AttackIn forecast 42

29 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

SC Braga

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.79 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

64% Scored inContext 86%

7% Clean sheetsContext 36%

12.14 ShotsContext 13.21

3.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.07

32% On target shareContext 38%

7.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.85

62% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 14%

1.54 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.64 Shots allowedContext 7.43

4.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.64

2.46 BlocksContext 2.45

2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.08

59% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 66%

401 PassesContext 611

319 Accurate passesContext 537

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.86 FoulsContext 10.79

12.57 Fouls sufferedContext 12.86

2.79 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

60% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.90 ShotsContext 13.00

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

33% On target shareContext 37%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

64% Box shareContext 69%

14% ConversionContext 16%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.80 Shots allowedContext 7.30

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.22 BlocksContext 2.86

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

59% Save rateContext 77%

50% PossessionIn forecast 62%

404 PassesContext 589

321 Accurate passesContext 518

79% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.50 FoulsContext 12.70

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km619 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Braga

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel327 km2,643 km in 14d

Schedule load26%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec	4.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	327 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	619 km	2,643 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Joel Robles(G)

24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 44K. Boma 2Ricard Sánchez

10J. Holsgrove

19André Lacximicant 12João Carvalho 6Jandro Orellana 14Y. Begraoui

99R. Guitane

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 6Vitor Carvalho 14G. Lagerbielke

77Gabri Martínez 8João Moutinho 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 2Víctor Gómez

50D. Rodrigues 10R. Zalazar

18Pau Víctor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
SC Braga+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.29points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-2
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 1.57

SC Braga · Away 1.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	Estoril	SC Braga
Famalicao	L 0–4 A	W 2–1 A
Moreirense	D 3–3 H	W 2–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Arouca	W 4–3 H	W 4–0 A
Rio Ave	W 4–0 A	D 2–2 A
Nacional	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Casa Pia	D 2–2 A	W 4–0 H
Sporting CP	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
AVS	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
Santa Clara	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Tondela	D 2–2 A	W 3–0 H
Guimaraes	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
Points	13 of 39 · 1.00 per game	22 of 39 · 1.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Estoril wins1 draws5 SC Braga wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.33 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

19 Apr 2025Estoril0–2SC Braga
6 Dec 2024SC Braga2–2Estoril
13 Apr 2024Estoril0–1SC Braga
3 Dec 2023SC Braga3–1Estoril
8 Apr 2023SC Braga4–1Estoril
22 Oct 2022Estoril0–2SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.86
Conceded per game	1.79	0.86
Match goals	3.36	2.71	2.73
Over 1.5	79%	79%
Over 2.5	57%	64%	51%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	7%	36%
Failed to score	36%	14%
Games	14	14

	Estoril	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	2.10
Conceded per game	1.80	0.90
Match goals	3.50	3.00	2.73
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	4.58	5.67
Corners conceded	4.92	2.50
Match total	9.50	8.17	9.18
Over 8.5	50% 6/12	33% 4/12
Over 9.5	50% 6/12	25% 3/12
Over 10.5	50% 6/12	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	2.79	1.86
Opponent cards	2.14	2.71
Match total	4.93	4.57	5.54
Over 3.5	93% 13/14	86% 12/14
Over 4.5	57% 8/14	50% 7/14

	Estoril	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.78
Corners conceded	5.13	3.00
Match total	10.13	7.78	9.18
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.30	2.50
Match total	4.80	4.40	5.54
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards7.43league 5.19

Red cards0.29league 0.30

Cards 5+100%league 63%

Fouls29.4league 27.5

Penalties0.29league 0.47

Home wins29%league 37%

Estoril

No previous matches with this referee.

SC Braga

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.