Estoril
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Estoril60.2%fair odds 1.66
Draw23.7%fair odds 4.22
Tondela16.1%fair odds 6.21
Expected goals1.81 – 0.83total 2.64
Likeliest score1–012.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Tondela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Estoril ↓ · Tondela → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Estoril goals, columns Tondela goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–012.4%8.07
- 2–011.7%8.52
- 1–111.3%8.88
- 2–19.7%10.31
- 0–07.7%12.97
- 3–07.1%14.10
- 3–15.9%17.07
- 0–15.3%18.75
- 1–24.4%22.63
- 2–24.0%24.97
Winning margin
16.6%
Estoril by 3+
fair 6.04
18.8%
Estoril by 2
fair 5.32
24.8%
Estoril by 1
fair 4.03
23.7%
Draw
fair 4.22
11.0%
Tondela by 1
fair 9.09
3.9%
Tondela by 2
fair 25.61
1.2%
Tondela by 3+
fair 84.57
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
25%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Estoril goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Tondela goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril win | 60.2% | 61.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 23.7% | 22.6% | +1.1 pp |
| Tondela win | 16.1% | 16.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.1% | 54.0% | -4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.6% | 51.4% | -3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Estoril | 1.81 | 1.93 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Tondela | 0.83 | 0.90 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Estoril win60.2%1.66
- Draw23.7%4.22
- Tondela win16.1%6.21
- Double chance Estoril or draw83.9%1.19
- Double chance Estoril or Tondela76.3%1.31
- Double chance Tondela or draw39.8%2.51
- Draw no bet Estoril78.9%1.27
- Draw no bet Tondela21.1%4.74
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.6%1.34
- Over 2.549.1%2.04
- Over 3.527.2%3.67
- Over 4.512.8%7.80
- Under 1.525.4%3.93
- Under 2.550.9%1.97
- Under 3.572.8%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes47.6%2.10
- No52.4%1.91
- Yes and over 2.536.3%2.75
- Estoril win and yes24.1%4.14
- Draw and yes16.0%6.25
- Tondela win and yes7.5%13.36
Team goals
- Estoril over 0.583.7%1.20
- Estoril over 1.554.1%1.85
- Estoril over 2.527.3%3.67
- Tondela over 0.556.2%1.78
- Tondela over 1.520.1%4.99
- Tondela over 2.55.1%19.52
- Estoril clean sheet43.8%2.28
- Tondela clean sheet16.3%6.13
- Estoril win to nil36.1%2.77
- Tondela win to nil8.6%11.62
Handicap
- Estoril −1.535.4%2.83
- Estoril −2.516.6%6.04
- Tondela +1.564.6%1.55
- Tondela +2.583.4%1.20
- Tondela −1.55.1%19.65
- Estoril +1.594.9%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored182
Favourite won61.5%
Avg chance given to result44.4%
1X2 Brier0.533
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right55.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 37.6% | 48.5% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.8% | 51.6% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 65.7% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 75.3% | 76.2% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 153 of 182 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5288 | 0.5194 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 62.7% | 61.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 153 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Santa Clara 2–4 Estoril35·28·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 182 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.