Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were clear favourites.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 17). Estoril usually keep the ball (51% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Estoril had 7.1 days of rest, Tondela 5.9 and had to travel 231 km.
Away travel231 kmRest days7.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estoril60%
Draw24%
Tondela16%
Estoril60%
Draw23%
Tondela17%
Estoril60%
Draw24%
Tondela16%
Estoril53%
Draw26%
Tondela21%
Estoril61%
Draw23%
Tondela16%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMarcio Torres
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.80
- Matches 5
Team strength
Estoril
Tondela
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
16
29
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilTondela
2.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.65
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
75%
Scored inContext
35%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.85
ShotsContext
9.95
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.32
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.85
64%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
6%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.06
11.85
Shots allowedContext
12.75
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.78
BlocksContext
3.32
2.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.06
61%
Save rateContext
75%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
409
PassesContext
304
332
Accurate passesContext
238
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.40
FoulsContext
14.45
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.35
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.98
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
80%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
8.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
42%
On target shareContext
28%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
65%
Box shareContext
58%
23%
ConversionContext
7%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.30
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.11
BlocksContext
2.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
61%
Save rateContext
82%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
418
PassesContext
290
349
Accurate passesContext
220
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.61
12.00
FoulsContext
14.90
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,847 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Tondela
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel231 km211 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 231 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,847 km | 211 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
4Ferro
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
21Pizzi
9A. Marqués
99R. Guitane
14Y. Begraoui
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
97Cicero
15S. Sithole
90M. Aïko
10J. Hodge
7Pedro Henryque
29J. Siebatcheu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-2
- Scored
- 2.10
- Conceded
- 1.40
Tondela · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-7
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Estrela | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Alverca | W 4–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Moreirense | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Arouca | W 4–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 28 of 57 · 1.47 per game | 12 of 57 · 0.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Estoril wins1 draws0 Tondela wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Tondela2–2Estoril
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.05 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.65 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.25 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 55% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 65% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 65% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Estoril | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 2.00 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 3.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 5.65 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 9.00 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 7/18 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.90 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 18/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 13/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Estoril | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.90 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 5.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marcio Torres Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 4.93
Red cards0.20league 0.29
Cards 5+40%league 59%
Fouls27.2league 27.1
Penalties0.80league 0.47
Home wins40%league 40%
EstorilNo previous matches with this referee.
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril20 games · scored 41 · conceded 33
4
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
4
46-60
7
7
61-75
5
6
76-90
Tondela20 games · scored 12 · conceded 33
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
8
61-75
1
10
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 26 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
4
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
