Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Casa Pia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Casa Pia. Estrela had 5.1 days of rest, Casa Pia 13 and had to travel.
Rest days5.1 · 13Matches / 14d2 · 1
Estrela34%
Draw29%
Casa Pia37%
Estrela37%
Draw27%
Casa Pia35%
Estrela34%
Draw29%
Casa Pia37%
Estrela28%
Draw29%
Casa Pia43%
Estrela34%
Draw28%
Casa Pia38%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.52
- Matches 54
Team strength
Estrela
Casa Pia
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
24
AttackIn forecast
13
27
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaCasa Pia
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.76
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
58%
Scored inContext
56%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.42
ShotsContext
8.16
3.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.96
34%
On target shareContext
33%
5.31
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
50%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.31
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
3.96
BlocksContext
4.08
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
66%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
353
PassesContext
304
286
Accurate passesContext
228
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.96
FoulsContext
15.08
14.77
Fouls sufferedContext
13.72
2.46
Yellow cardsContext
2.96
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
60%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.00
ShotsContext
8.30
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
37%
On target shareContext
31%
4.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
46%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.44
BlocksContext
5.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
366
PassesContext
261
301
Accurate passesContext
186
82%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.40
FoulsContext
16.10
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km584 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 13Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 584 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 17 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
24B. Langa
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
21M. Scholze
8Robinho
6Kevin Höög Jansson
39G. Doue
10I. Stoica
9Rodrigo Pinho
99A. Marcus
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
18André Geraldes
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
42S. Pérez
72Gaizka Larrazabal
10Dailon Livramento
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.62
Casa Pia · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| AVS | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Tondela | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Benfica | L 0–4 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | L 0–5 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | D 3–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Famalicao | W 3–2 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Moreirense | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 22 of 75 · 0.88 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Estrela wins0 draws2 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 1 Nov 2025Casa Pia3–5Estrela
- 9 Feb 2025Casa Pia1–0Estrela
- 31 Aug 2024Estrela0–1Casa Pia
- 8 Mar 2024Estrela3–1Casa Pia
- 8 Oct 2023Casa Pia0–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.76 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 48% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 44% | |
| Games | 26 | 25 |
| Estrela | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.45 | 5.74 | |
| Match total | 9.31 | 9.31 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.62 | 3.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.69 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.31 | 5.64 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 19/26 | 88% 22/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 18/26 | 72% 18/25 | |
| Estrela | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 9.66 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.00 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.44league 4.84
Red cards0.31league 0.27
Cards 5+69%league 59%
Fouls29.2league 27.0
Penalties0.52league 0.44
Home wins46%league 41%
Estrela7 with this referee
Record3-0-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds2
- W1 Nov 25A · Casa Pia5–33
- W27 Sep 25H · AVS3–03
- W6 Apr 25A · Nacional1–02
- L9 Feb 25A · Casa Pia0–14
- L24 Aug 24A · Benfica0–13
Casa Pia9 with this referee
Record2-1-6
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 5
Reds2
- L1 Nov 25H · Estrela3–52
- D21 Sep 25H · Famalicao1–11
- L9 Mar 25H · Sporting CP1–34
- W9 Feb 25H · Estrela1–04
- L2 Dec 24A · FC Porto0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela25 games · scored 24 · conceded 42
2
7
0-15
6
4
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
10
46-60
7
10
61-75
2
3
76-90
Casa Pia24 games · scored 23 · conceded 39
4
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
3
8
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
7
61-75
1
2
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
