Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Estoril were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 21). Estrela had 16.1 days of rest, Estoril 16.1 and had to travel 15 km.
Away travel15 kmRest days16.1 · 16.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Estrela35%
Draw28%
Estoril36%
Estrela36%
Draw27%
Estoril37%
Estrela35%
Draw28%
Estoril36%
Estrela29%
Draw28%
Estoril43%
Estrela36%
Draw27%
Estoril37%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.54
- Matches 13
Team strength
Estrela
Estoril
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
24
AttackIn forecast
21
27
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaEstoril
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
59%
Scored inContext
71%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
11.24
ShotsContext
11.71
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
34%
5.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.59
50%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.15
OffsidesContext
1.53
12.94
Shots allowedContext
12.12
4.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.81
3.69
BlocksContext
2.93
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
70%
Save rateContext
61%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
346
PassesContext
408
277
Accurate passesContext
328
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.65
FoulsContext
12.76
15.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.12
2.59
Yellow cardsContext
2.82
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
50%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.56
14.30
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.00
BlocksContext
2.89
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
61%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
359
PassesContext
426
290
Accurate passesContext
349
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.50
FoulsContext
12.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel15 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 16.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 15 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
17Jefferson Encada
63A. Sola
19Paulo Moreira
10I. Stoica
18Jorge Meireles
99A. Marcus
98Kikas
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
24Pedro Amaral
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
2Ricard Sánchez
12João Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
99R. Guitane
9A. Marqués
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-3
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.33
Estoril · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | D 3–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Famalicao | W 3–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Moreirense | D 0–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | W 4–3 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 5–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| AVS | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Tondela | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Santa Clara | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Alverca | D 2–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 19 of 48 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Estrela wins1 draws3 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 11 Aug 2025Estoril1–1Estrela
- 17 May 2025Estoril4–0Estrela
- 5 Jan 2025Estrela2–4Estoril
- 4 Feb 2024Estoril1–0Estrela
- 25 Aug 2023Estrela2–1Estoril
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 3.35 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 59% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 59% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 59% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Estrela | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.79 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.93 | 9.80 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.82 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 5.53 | 4.88 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 13/17 | 88% 15/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 12/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Estrela | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.67 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.50 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.31league 5.00
Red cards0.23league 0.29
Cards 5+77%league 59%
Fouls29.1league 27.3
Penalties0.54league 0.45
Home wins23%league 38%
Estrela2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L5 May 25A · Rio Ave0–26
- D28 Dec 24A · AVS1–12
Estoril1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L16 Aug 25A · Guimaraes2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela16 games · scored 18 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estoril17 games · scored 28 · conceded 29
3
6
0-15
3
2
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
3
6
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
5
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
