Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. Estrela had 8 days of rest, GIL Vicente 5.8 and had to travel 313 km.
Away travel313 kmRest days8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Estrela22%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente51%
Estrela29%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente44%
Estrela22%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente51%
Estrela17%
Draw24%
GIL Vicente59%
Estrela22%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente52%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 84
Team strength
Estrela
GIL Vicente
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
32
27
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaGIL Vicente
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.96
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
54%
Scored inContext
79%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
10.46
ShotsContext
13.88
3.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
33%
On target shareContext
34%
5.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
49%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.92
Shots allowedContext
9.71
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.77
3.61
BlocksContext
2.26
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
67%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
348
PassesContext
361
281
Accurate passesContext
292
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.04
FoulsContext
13.33
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
14.38
2.54
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.80
ShotsContext
15.80
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
36%
On target shareContext
35%
4.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
50%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.60
Shots allowedContext
8.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.67
BlocksContext
1.89
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
66%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
350
PassesContext
371
283
Accurate passesContext
303
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.90
FoulsContext
11.50
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel313 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 313 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 642 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
24B. Langa
4S. Leković
30Luan Patrick
21M. Scholze
6Kevin Höög Jansson
63A. Sola
11Jovane Cabral
19Paulo Moreira
99A. Marcus
10I. Stoica
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
20Hevertton Santos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
27Agustín Moreira
95Santi García
77Murilo
23Héctor Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.58
GIL Vicente · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–4 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Estoril | L 0–5 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| SC Braga | D 3–3 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 3–2 A | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Moreirense | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Casa Pia | W 5–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game | 37 of 69 · 1.61 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Estrela wins2 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.40
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 4 Oct 2025GIL Vicente2–0Estrela
- 7 Mar 2025Estrela1–1GIL Vicente
- 5 Oct 2024GIL Vicente3–0Estrela
- 18 May 2024Estrela1–0GIL Vicente
- 14 Jan 2024GIL Vicente1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 0.96 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.42 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 46% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 21% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.24 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.00 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 5.38 | 5.21 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 18/24 | 75% 18/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 17/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Estrela | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 10.00 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.70 | 5.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.01league 4.84
Red cards0.23league 0.26
Cards 5+61%league 59%
Fouls28.6league 26.9
Penalties0.30league 0.45
Home wins40%league 41%
Estrela5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Dec 25A · Famalicao3–25
- L25 Oct 25H · Rio Ave1–23
- W14 Feb 25A · Boavista1–02
- L11 May 24A · Vizela0–42
- D14 Apr 24H · Rio Ave2–22
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W30 Dec 23H · Boavista1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela23 games · scored 21 · conceded 38
2
6
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
3
9
46-60
5
9
61-75
2
3
76-90
GIL Vicente24 games · scored 35 · conceded 23
6
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
11
5
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
9
3
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
1
2
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
