Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Estrela22.2%fair odds 4.51
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.78
GIL Vicente51.4%fair odds 1.95
Expected goals0.95 – 1.58total 2.54
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Estrela ↓ · GIL Vicente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Estrela goals, columns GIL Vicente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.95
- 0–111.9%8.41
- 0–29.9%10.10
- 1–29.5%10.58
- 0–08.5%11.70
- 1–06.9%14.44
- 2–15.7%17.53
- 0–35.2%19.16
- 1–35.0%20.07
- 2–24.5%22.16
Winning margin
2.1%
Estrela by 3+
fair 47.62
5.8%
Estrela by 2
fair 17.23
14.3%
Estrela by 1
fair 7.01
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.78
24.0%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 4.16
15.9%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 6.28
11.4%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 8.78
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Estrela goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
GIL Vicente goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 22.2% | 22.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.6% | +0.8 pp |
| GIL Vicente win | 51.4% | 52.0% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 49.8% | -3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.5% | 52.0% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Estrela | 0.95 | 1.01 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 1.58 | 1.66 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Estrela win22.2%4.51
- Draw26.5%3.78
- GIL Vicente win51.4%1.95
- Double chance Estrela or draw48.6%2.06
- Double chance Estrela or GIL Vicente73.5%1.36
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw77.8%1.28
- Draw no bet Estrela30.1%3.32
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente69.9%1.43
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.6%1.38
- Over 2.546.6%2.15
- Over 3.525.0%4.00
- Over 4.511.4%8.79
- Under 1.527.4%3.66
- Under 2.553.4%1.87
- Under 3.575.0%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes49.5%2.02
- No50.5%1.98
- Yes and over 2.536.9%2.71
- Estrela win and yes10.1%9.85
- Draw and yes17.9%5.58
- GIL Vicente win and yes21.4%4.67
Team goals
- Estrela over 0.561.5%1.63
- Estrela over 1.524.8%4.04
- Estrela over 2.57.2%13.85
- GIL Vicente over 0.579.4%1.26
- GIL Vicente over 1.546.9%2.13
- GIL Vicente over 2.521.2%4.72
- Estrela clean sheet20.6%4.86
- GIL Vicente clean sheet38.5%2.60
- Estrela win to nil12.0%8.32
- GIL Vicente win to nil29.9%3.34
Handicap
- Estrela −1.57.9%12.65
- Estrela −2.52.1%47.62
- GIL Vicente +1.592.1%1.09
- GIL Vicente +2.597.9%1.02
- GIL Vicente −1.527.3%3.66
- Estrela +1.572.7%1.38
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored221
Favourite won60.2%
Avg chance given to result44.5%
1X2 Brier0.531
Over 2.5 called right58.4%
BTTS called right55.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 37.7% | 45.2% |
| 40–50% | 72 | 44.6% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 54.6% | 59.1% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 75.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 221 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5161 | 0.5035 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Favourite won | 63.3% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗SC Braga 2–2 Sporting CP33·28·39
- ✗Alverca 0–0 AVS58·25·17
- ✗Moreirense 1–1 Nacional45·29·26
- ✓Famalicao 1–0 Arouca47·27·26
- ✓GIL Vicente 1–2 Benfica24·25·51
- ✗Rio Ave 0–0 Famalicao30·30·41
- ✗Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense41·30·29
- ✗Tondela 2–2 Santa Clara43·30·27
- ✗Guimaraes 1–1 Alverca54·25·21
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 221 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.