Estrela vs Moreirense – 21 Mar 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 21 · 16:00 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

VS— Compare

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel302 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Estrela—%

Draw—%

Moreirense—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Amadora)

Forecast from 6 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Estrela

Moreirense

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

24 AttackIn forecast 17

27 DefenceIn forecast 27

24 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Moreirense

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.51

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

75% Scored inContext 63%

0% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.63 ShotsContext 7.88

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

33% On target shareContext 35%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 4.25

68% Box shareContext 55%

14% ConversionContext 13%

1.60 OffsidesContext —

10.88 Shots allowedContext 15.13

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.13 BlocksContext 3.88

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

61% Save rateContext 58%

51% PossessionIn forecast 36%

412 PassesContext 324

345 Accurate passesContext 244

84% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.48

10.75 FoulsContext 13.63

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 0.53

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

70% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.10 ShotsContext 8.50

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

34% On target shareContext 33%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

69% Box shareContext 54%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.00

11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.20

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.40 BlocksContext 4.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

63% Save rateContext 56%

48% PossessionIn forecast 41%

384 PassesContext 364

317 Accurate passesContext 286

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.54

11.00 FoulsContext 12.70

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela DWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km57 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Mar	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	57 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Moreirense Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Moreirense
Arouca	L 0–1 A	L 0–4 A
SC Braga	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Estrela wins3 draws2 Moreirense wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.33 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 33%

2 May 2026Moreirense3–2Estrela
20 Dec 2025Estrela0–0Moreirense
2 Mar 2025Moreirense1–1Estrela
28 Sep 2024Estrela2–1Moreirense
7 Apr 2024Moreirense2–2Estrela
11 Nov 2023Estrela0–1Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Moreirense
Scored per game	1.75	1.00
Conceded per game	1.88	1.88
Match goals	3.63	2.88
Over 1.5	88%	75%
Over 2.5	75%	63%
Over 3.5	63%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Estrela	Moreirense
Scored per game	1.60	0.80
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	3.30	2.50
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	2.50
Corners conceded	4.71	4.88
Match total	9.57	7.38	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	0% 0/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.75
Opponent cards	2.50	1.88
Match total	4.88	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8

	Estrela	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	3.30
Corners conceded	5.56	4.30
Match total	9.78	7.60	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.60
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	4.90	4.40	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.