Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Rest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sporting CP—%
Draw—%
Casa Pia—%
Weather (Lisboa)
Forecast from 6 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sporting CP and Casa Pia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Casa Pia
−0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.58xG against1.38
-
Alert
Casa Pia
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sporting CP
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Casa Pia
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Casa Pia
−0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.58xG against1.38
Team strength
Sporting CPCasa Pia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
75
AttackIn forecast
13
81
DefenceIn forecast
25
83
Form indexContext
19
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPCasa Pia
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.38
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
100%
Scored inContext
25%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.50
ShotsContext
9.63
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
44%
On target shareContext
27%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
67%
Box shareContext
59%
20%
ConversionContext
4%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.83
9.13
Shots allowedContext
15.25
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.14
BlocksContext
5.71
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
73%
Save rateContext
67%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
550
PassesContext
343
488
Accurate passesContext
268
89%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.44
11.50
FoulsContext
12.13
13.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
100%
Scored inContext
30%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
9.60
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
45%
On target shareContext
32%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
66%
Box shareContext
60%
21%
ConversionContext
5%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.75
10.40
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.33
BlocksContext
5.67
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
81%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
521
PassesContext
327
457
Accurate passesContext
251
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.56
11.70
FoulsContext
12.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km480 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Casa Pia
LDLWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Mar | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 480 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Casa Pia
Last XI · not confirmed
95Ivan Mandić(G)
75Pedro Rosas
43David Sousa
3Kaly
18André Geraldes
80L. Ofori
16Silvi
77B. Pauwels
70João Rêgo
11M. El Boukammiri
9Henrique Araújo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Casa Pia
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Casa Pia · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
8 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game3.38 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 16 Jan 2026Sporting CP3–0Casa Pia
- 8 Aug 2025Casa Pia0–2Sporting CP
- 9 Mar 2025Casa Pia1–3Sporting CP
- 5 Oct 2024Sporting CP2–0Casa Pia
- 29 Jan 2024Sporting CP8–0Casa Pia
- 18 Aug 2023Casa Pia1–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 2.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 38% | |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.29 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 6.86 | 10.25 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 14% 1/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.51 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Sporting CP | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 6.89 | 10.50 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.90 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Casa Pia8 games · scored 3 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
