Estrela vs Nacional – 9 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 9 · 15:30 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 14th · 10 pts · 10 played DWLLW

1–1Full time

Nacional 11th · 11 pts · 10 played LWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Estrela had 7.9 days of rest, Nacional 8 and had to travel 969 km.

Away travel969 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Estrela38%

Draw28%

Nacional33%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.20

Estrela39%

Draw27%

Nacional34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Estrela38%

Draw28%

Nacional33%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.20

Estrela32%

Draw28%

Nacional40%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.34

Estrela39%

Draw27%

Nacional34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 9

Team strength

Estrela

Nacional

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

24 AttackIn forecast 15

27 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Nacional

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.70 ShotsContext 10.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

31% On target shareContext 37%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.63

50% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.56

11.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.30 BlocksContext 4.20

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

77% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 43%

338 PassesContext 282

270 Accurate passesContext 208

80% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.50 FoulsContext 14.70

16.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.70 ShotsContext 10.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

31% On target shareContext 37%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.63

50% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.56

11.00 Shots allowedContext 13.40

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.30 BlocksContext 4.20

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

77% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 43%

338 PassesContext 282

270 Accurate passesContext 208

80% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.50 FoulsContext 14.70

16.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km139 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nacional

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel969 km1,909 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	969 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	139 km	1,909 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	20.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

3-4-3

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

21Guilherme Montóia 79A. Chernev 30Luan Patrick

55Sidny Lopes Cabral 19Paulo Moreira 6Oumar Ngom 17Jefferson Encada

8Robinho 98Kikas 99A. Marcus

Nacional Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1Kaique(G)

5José Gomes 33Francisco Gonçalves 6Matheus Dias 34Léo Santos 2João Aurélio

11Paulinho Bóia 15C. Labidi 28Liziero 7Witi

9J. Ramírez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nacional+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.40

Nacional · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Nacional
Casa Pia	W 5–3 A	W 2–0 A
Rio Ave	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 H
Estoril	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Estrela wins0 draws0 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

6 Apr 2025Nacional0–1Estrela
10 Nov 2024Estrela2–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	2.50	2.40	2.50
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

	Estrela	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	2.50	2.40	2.50
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	4.60
Corners conceded	3.89	6.00
Match total	8.22	10.60	9.23
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	3.00
Opponent cards	3.10	2.90
Match total	5.90	5.90	5.43
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10

	Estrela	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	4.60
Corners conceded	3.89	6.00
Match total	8.22	10.60	9.23
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	3.00
Opponent cards	3.10	2.90
Match total	5.90	5.90	5.43
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.78league 5.16

Red cards0.22league 0.29

Cards 5+67%league 64%

Fouls27.0league 27.7

Penalties0.33league 0.46

Home wins56%league 36%

Estrela

No previous matches with this referee.

Nacional

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.