Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Bournemouth. Everton had 3.2 days of rest, Bournemouth 3.2 and had to travel 308 km.
Away travel308 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Everton40%
Draw26%
Bournemouth34%
Everton42%
Draw27%
Bournemouth31%
Everton38%
Draw26%
Bournemouth35%
Everton32%
Draw26%
Bournemouth41%
Everton40%
Draw27%
Bournemouth34%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndy Madley
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 129
Team strength
Everton
Bournemouth
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
61
AttackIn forecast
83
66
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonBournemouth
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.12
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.76
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
72%
Scored inContext
84%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.64
3.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.96
29%
On target shareContext
36%
7.42
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
68%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.21
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.72
4.44
BlocksContext
3.88
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
70%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
379
PassesContext
403
302
Accurate passesContext
323
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.56
FoulsContext
12.08
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
10.32
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
15.30
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
30%
On target shareContext
37%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
67%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.70
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.10
BlocksContext
4.50
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
78%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
393
PassesContext
368
314
Accurate passesContext
285
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.70
FoulsContext
11.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,264 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Bournemouth
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel308 km416 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,264 km | 416 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 10.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
32J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
27I. Gueye
37J. Garner
19T. George
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
11T. Barry
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
23J. Hill
20Álex Jiménez
10R. Christie
8A. Scott
21A. Adli
27A. Tóth
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bournemouth-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.33
Bournemouth · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Brentford | L 2–4 H | L 1–4 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Burnley | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–4 H | D 0–0 H |
| Manchester United | W 1–0 A | D 4–4 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 HL 2–4 A |
| Points | 34 of 72 · 1.42 per game | 34 of 72 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Everton wins0 draws4 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 2 Dec 2025Bournemouth0–1Everton
- 4 Jan 2025Bournemouth1–0Everton
- 31 Aug 2024Everton2–3Bournemouth
- 30 Mar 2024Bournemouth2–1Everton
- 7 Oct 2023Everton3–0Bournemouth
- 28 May 2023Everton1–0Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.12 | 1.76 | |
| Match goals | 2.24 | 3.40 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 68% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Everton | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.16 | 5.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.24 | 5.61 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.35 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 3.76 | 4.44 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 12/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Everton | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 13.10 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andy Madley 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.72
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls22.9league 21.3
Penalties0.15league 0.22
Home wins47%league 44%
Everton15 with this referee
Record7-3-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Nov 25H · Fulham2–02
- D22 Feb 25H · Manchester United2–24
- L2 Nov 24A · Southampton0–12
- W28 Sep 24H · Crystal Palace2–12
- W24 Apr 24H · Liverpool2–00
Bournemouth6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Apr 24A · Luton1–20
- L21 Jan 24H · Liverpool0–41
- W25 Nov 23A · Sheffield Utd3–11
- W15 Apr 23A · Tottenham3–22
- D21 Jan 23H · Nottingham Forest1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton25 games · scored 28 · conceded 28
3
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
10
4
76-90
Bournemouth25 games · scored 41 · conceded 44
7
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
7
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
12
13
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Bournemouth9 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
