Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 73). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Everton. Everton had 8 days of rest, Liverpool 7.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Everton38%
Draw24%
Liverpool38%
Everton34%
Draw27%
Liverpool39%
Everton37%
Draw24%
Liverpool38%
Everton30%
Draw24%
Liverpool46%
Everton39%
Draw25%
Liverpool36%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 160
Team strength
Everton
Liverpool
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
61
AttackIn forecast
85
66
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonLiverpool
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
72%
Scored inContext
88%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.06
ShotsContext
15.75
3.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
33%
On target shareContext
29%
7.55
Shots in the boxContext
10.34
67%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.69
Shots allowedContext
11.31
4.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
4.44
BlocksContext
3.53
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
68%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
385
PassesContext
537
307
Accurate passesContext
461
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.38
FoulsContext
9.69
11.47
Fouls sufferedContext
10.44
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.53
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
16.30
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.44
42%
On target shareContext
36%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
66%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.00
BlocksContext
4.11
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
65%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
419
PassesContext
460
339
Accurate passesContext
380
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.30
FoulsContext
11.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 560 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
32J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
37J. Garner
27I. Gueye
10I. Ndiaye
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
7D. McNeil
9Beto
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
25G. Mamardashvili(G)
26A. Robertson
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
17C. Jones
38R. Gravenberch
8D. Szoboszlai
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
11Mohamed Salah
9A. Isak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Liverpool-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.19
Liverpool · Away
1.31points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-7
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | D 2–2 AL 2–4 H | L 2–3 A |
| Chelsea | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H |
| Fulham | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | W 5–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 47 of 93 · 1.52 per game | 49 of 93 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Everton wins2 draws6 Liverpool wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.50
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 50%
- 20 Sep 2025Liverpool2–1Everton
- 2 Apr 2025Liverpool1–0Everton
- 12 Feb 2025Everton2–2Liverpool
- 24 Apr 2024Everton2–0Liverpool
- 21 Oct 2023Liverpool2–0Everton
- 13 Feb 2023Liverpool2–0Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.94 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 59% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 63% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 13% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Everton | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 6.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.81 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 22/32 | 81% 25/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 14/32 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 12/32 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 3.62 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 15/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 13/32 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Everton | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.30 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 160 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.77
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.22
Home wins39%league 41%
Everton9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D31 Jan 26A · Brighton1–12
- W6 Dec 25H · Nottingham Forest3–04
- L18 Aug 25A · Leeds0–12
- L26 Apr 25A · Chelsea0–10
- D22 Dec 24H · Chelsea0–04
Liverpool22 with this referee
Record12-5-5
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D15 Mar 26H · Tottenham1–10
- W11 Feb 26A · Sunderland1–00
- D1 Jan 26H · Leeds0–00
- L9 Nov 25A · Manchester City0–34
- L27 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton32 games · scored 39 · conceded 37
3
4
0-15
7
8
16-30
7
5
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
7
61-75
13
8
76-90
Liverpool32 games · scored 52 · conceded 42
3
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
13
5
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
17
15
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
