Everton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Everton38.1%fair odds 2.62
Draw24.2%fair odds 4.13
Liverpool37.7%fair odds 2.65
Expected goals1.64 – 1.63total 3.27
Likeliest score1–110.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Liverpool
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Everton ↓ · Liverpool → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Everton goals, columns Liverpool goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%9.36
- 2–18.3%12.00
- 1–28.3%12.08
- 2–26.8%14.72
- 1–05.7%17.59
- 0–15.6%17.71
- 2–05.1%19.58
- 0–25.0%19.83
- 3–14.6%21.94
- 1–34.5%22.22
Winning margin
7.9%
Everton by 3+
fair 12.60
11.5%
Everton by 2
fair 8.70
18.7%
Everton by 1
fair 5.35
24.2%
Draw
fair 4.13
18.6%
Liverpool by 1
fair 5.39
11.4%
Liverpool by 2
fair 8.81
7.8%
Liverpool by 3+
fair 12.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Everton goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Liverpool goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 38.1% | 38.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.2% | 25.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Liverpool win | 37.7% | 36.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 59.6% | +3.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 65.4% | 62.4% | +3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Everton | 1.64 | 1.57 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Liverpool | 1.63 | 1.52 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Everton win38.1%2.62
- Draw24.2%4.13
- Liverpool win37.7%2.65
- Double chance Everton or draw62.3%1.60
- Double chance Everton or Liverpool75.8%1.32
- Double chance Liverpool or draw61.9%1.62
- Draw no bet Everton50.3%1.99
- Draw no bet Liverpool49.7%2.01
Goals
- Over 0.595.7%1.05
- Over 1.584.3%1.19
- Over 2.563.5%1.57
- Over 3.541.4%2.42
- Over 4.523.2%4.30
- Under 1.515.7%6.39
- Under 2.536.5%2.74
- Under 3.558.6%1.71
Both teams to score
- Yes65.4%1.53
- No34.6%2.89
- Yes and over 2.554.7%1.83
- Everton win and yes22.9%4.37
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Liverpool win and yes22.6%4.42
Team goals
- Everton over 0.580.6%1.24
- Everton over 1.548.8%2.05
- Everton over 2.522.7%4.40
- Liverpool over 0.580.4%1.24
- Liverpool over 1.548.5%2.06
- Liverpool over 2.522.5%4.45
- Everton clean sheet19.6%5.11
- Liverpool clean sheet19.4%5.16
- Everton win to nil15.2%6.56
- Liverpool win to nil15.0%6.65
Handicap
- Everton −1.519.4%5.15
- Everton −2.57.9%12.60
- Liverpool +1.580.6%1.24
- Liverpool +2.592.1%1.09
- Liverpool −1.519.1%5.23
- Everton +1.580.9%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored324
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.629
Over 2.5 called right54.6%
BTTS called right54.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 47 | 38.3% | 36.2% |
| 40–50% | 118 | 45.0% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 89 | 54.9% | 52.8% |
| 60–70% | 43 | 64.2% | 55.8% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 73.7% | 54.2% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 265 of 324 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6296 | 0.6184 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.7% | 39.4% |
| Favourite won | 47.5% | 49.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 265 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 324 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.