Everton vs Nottingham Forest – 6 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 10th · 21 pts · 14 played DWWLW

3–0Full time

Nottingham Forest 16th · 15 pts · 14 played DWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Everton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Nottingham Forest come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Everton had 3.8 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 2.8 and had to travel 132 km.

Away travel132 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 4

Everton49%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest26%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.19

Everton45%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Everton49%

Draw25%

Nottingham Forest26%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.16

Everton42%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest32%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.34

Everton45%

Draw26%

Nottingham Forest28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.20

Over 2.5 56% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 142

Team strength

Everton

Nottingham Forest

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

61 AttackIn forecast 68

66 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Nottingham Forest

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

71% Scored inContext 50%

36% Clean sheetsContext 14%

10.57 ShotsContext 12.50

2.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

28% On target shareContext 32%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.21

67% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.89 OffsidesContext 1.80

13.36 Shots allowedContext 13.43

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.93

5.00 BlocksContext 4.33

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14

67% Save rateContext 64%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

385 PassesContext 444

307 Accurate passesContext 370

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.36 FoulsContext 11.21

11.86 Fouls sufferedContext 12.15

2.07 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.00 ShotsContext 13.30

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

31% On target shareContext 32%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

67% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

13.40 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.50 BlocksContext 4.88

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

65% Save rateContext 62%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

390 PassesContext 429

314 Accurate passesContext 354

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.30 FoulsContext 11.70

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km716 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel132 km418 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	Yes
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Dec	2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	132 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	716 km	418 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	2 / 4 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

22K. Dewsbury-Hall 37J. Garner

18J. Grealish 24C. Alcaraz 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 4Morato 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

14D. Ndoye 10M. Gibbs-White 21O. Hutchinson

19Igor Jesus

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton+0.6 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 1.57points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-2
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.29

Nottingham Forest · Away 1.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-3
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Everton	Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth	W 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Newcastle	L 1–4 H	L 0–2 A
Manchester United	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
West Ham	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 H
Liverpool	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 A
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 A
Brighton	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Leeds	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Points	17 of 30 · 1.70 per game	11 of 30 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Everton wins2 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.17 – 0.83 Over 2.517% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 17%

12 Apr 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Everton
29 Dec 2024Everton0–2Nottingham Forest
21 Apr 2024Everton2–0Nottingham Forest
2 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest0–1Everton
5 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest2–2Everton
20 Aug 2022Everton1–1Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	1.00
Conceded per game	1.21	1.57
Match goals	2.29	2.57	2.92
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	36%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	14%	21%
Both teams scored	43%	36%	58%
Clean sheets	36%	14%
Failed to score	29%	50%
Games	14	14

	Everton	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	2.40	2.40	2.92
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	20%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	5.71
Corners conceded	5.21	4.79
Match total	9.50	10.50	9.90
Over 8.5	57% 8/14	86% 12/14
Over 9.5	43% 6/14	71% 10/14
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	50% 7/14
Cards
Cards	2.14	1.57
Opponent cards	1.79	1.64
Match total	3.93	3.21	3.75
Over 3.5	57% 8/14	43% 6/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	21% 3/14

	Everton	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	6.25
Corners conceded	5.90	4.75
Match total	10.30	11.00	9.90
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	88% 7/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.90	1.80
Match total	3.90	3.30	3.75
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 142 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 3.64

Red cards0.13league 0.11

Cards 5+37%league 39%

Fouls21.8league 21.9

Penalties0.24league 0.19

Home wins40%league 49%

Everton7 with this referee

Record1-3-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

L18 Aug 25A · Leeds0–12
L26 Apr 25A · Chelsea0–10
D22 Dec 24H · Chelsea0–04
D23 Nov 24H · Brentford0–00
D7 Nov 21H · Tottenham0–03

Nottingham Forest11 with this referee

Record4-4-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L18 Oct 25H · Chelsea0–32
W8 Mar 25H · Manchester City1–03
D14 Jan 25H · Liverpool1–12
D6 Oct 24A · Chelsea1–14
W4 May 24A · Sheffield Utd3–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.