Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Everton were slight favourites.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Everton. Everton had 7 days of rest, Sunderland 8 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Everton59%
Draw21%
Sunderland20%
Everton55%
Draw24%
Sunderland20%
Everton59%
Draw21%
Sunderland20%
Everton51%
Draw23%
Sunderland26%
Everton59%
Draw22%
Sunderland19%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 102
Team strength
Everton
Sunderland
71
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
61
AttackIn forecast
62
66
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonSunderland
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.03
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
75%
Scored inContext
64%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.17
ShotsContext
10.22
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.46
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.69
Shots in the boxContext
7.47
68%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.08
OffsidesContext
1.96
14.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
4.53
BlocksContext
4.50
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.35
66%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
380
PassesContext
374
302
Accurate passesContext
295
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.53
FoulsContext
10.64
11.06
Fouls sufferedContext
11.11
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.60
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
45%
On target shareContext
32%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
66%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.29
15.30
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.70
BlocksContext
4.40
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
58%
Save rateContext
69%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
376
PassesContext
368
297
Accurate passesContext
287
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.10
FoulsContext
12.40
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sunderland
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 10 May | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
42T. Iroegbunam
37J. Garner
10I. Ndiaye
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
9Beto
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
6L. Geertruida
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
10N. Angulo
28E. Le Fée
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.28points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-7
- Scored
- 1.39
- Conceded
- 1.33
Sunderland · Away
1.00points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-8
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Manchester City | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| West Ham | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Brentford | D 2–2 AL 2–4 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Bournemouth | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Fulham | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Brighton | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 3–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–5 HW 1–0 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 48 of 105 · 1.37 per game | 47 of 105 · 1.34 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Everton wins2 draws0 Sunderland wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Jan 2026Everton1–1Sunderland
- 3 Nov 2025Sunderland1–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.03 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.31 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 42% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 36% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Everton | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.60 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 3.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 5.28 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 8.89 | 10.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 24/36 | 58% 21/36 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 16/36 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 14/36 | 31% 11/36 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 4.08 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 17/36 | 56% 20/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 15/36 | 44% 16/36 | |
| Everton | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.30 | 10.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.70 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.6league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins55%league 43%
Everton13 with this referee
Record0-6-7
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- D10 Jan 26H · Sunderland1–11
- L4 Jan 25A · Bournemouth0–12
- L1 Dec 24A · Manchester United0–43
- D26 Oct 24H · Fulham1–11
- L10 Feb 24A · Manchester City0–22
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D10 Jan 26A · Everton1–15
- L14 Sep 24A · Plymouth2–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton36 games · scored 46 · conceded 46
4
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
15
13
76-90
Sunderland36 games · scored 37 · conceded 46
2
8
0-15
6
5
16-30
4
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
10
9
61-75
11
8
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
9
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
