Everton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Everton59.3%fair odds 1.69
Draw21.2%fair odds 4.72
Sunderland19.6%fair odds 5.11
Expected goals2.17 – 1.18total 3.35
Likeliest score2–19.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Everton ↓ · Sunderland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Everton goals, columns Sunderland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%10.26
- 1–19.5%10.55
- 2–08.2%12.14
- 1–07.1%14.03
- 3–17.0%14.21
- 3–05.9%16.82
- 2–25.8%17.34
- 1–25.3%18.78
- 3–24.2%24.02
- 0–04.0%25.07
Winning margin
19.3%
Everton by 3+
fair 5.19
18.0%
Everton by 2
fair 5.57
22.1%
Everton by 1
fair 4.54
21.2%
Draw
fair 4.72
11.8%
Sunderland by 1
fair 8.45
5.4%
Sunderland by 2
fair 18.65
2.4%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 42.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Everton goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Sunderland goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 59.3% | 59.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 21.2% | 21.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Sunderland win | 19.6% | 19.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 63.3% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.9% | 60.5% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Everton | 2.17 | 2.11 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 1.18 | 1.15 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Everton win59.3%1.69
- Draw21.2%4.72
- Sunderland win19.6%5.11
- Double chance Everton or draw80.4%1.24
- Double chance Everton or Sunderland78.8%1.27
- Double chance Sunderland or draw40.7%2.45
- Draw no bet Everton75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet Sunderland24.8%4.03
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.585.2%1.17
- Over 2.565.0%1.54
- Over 3.543.0%2.32
- Over 4.524.6%4.06
- Under 1.514.8%6.76
- Under 2.535.0%2.86
- Under 3.557.0%1.76
Both teams to score
- Yes61.9%1.62
- No38.1%2.62
- Yes and over 2.552.4%1.91
- Everton win and yes32.6%3.06
- Draw and yes17.2%5.82
- Sunderland win and yes12.1%8.27
Team goals
- Everton over 0.588.5%1.13
- Everton over 1.563.7%1.57
- Everton over 2.536.8%2.72
- Sunderland over 0.569.4%1.44
- Sunderland over 1.533.1%3.02
- Sunderland over 2.511.7%8.55
- Everton clean sheet30.6%3.27
- Sunderland clean sheet11.5%8.72
- Everton win to nil26.6%3.75
- Sunderland win to nil7.5%13.37
Handicap
- Everton −1.537.2%2.69
- Everton −2.519.3%5.19
- Sunderland +1.562.8%1.59
- Sunderland +2.580.7%1.24
- Sunderland −1.57.7%12.93
- Everton +1.592.3%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored362
Favourite won49.7%
Avg chance given to result39.3%
1X2 Brier0.618
Over 2.5 called right56.1%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 53 | 38.4% | 35.8% |
| 40–50% | 132 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 99 | 54.9% | 52.5% |
| 60–70% | 48 | 64.3% | 60.4% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 73.4% | 59.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 288 of 362 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6145 | 0.6020 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 40.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.3% | 51.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 286 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 362 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.