Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Everton were clear favourites.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 41). Everton had 3.2 days of rest, Wolves 4.2 and had to travel 108 km.
Away travel108 kmRest days3.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Everton61%
Draw22%
Wolves17%
Everton61%
Draw23%
Wolves17%
Everton61%
Draw22%
Wolves17%
Everton53%
Draw25%
Wolves22%
Everton61%
Draw23%
Wolves17%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Kirk
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 25
Team strength
Everton
Wolves
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
61
AttackIn forecast
41
66
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonWolves
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
65%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
10.75
ShotsContext
8.90
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.32
30%
On target shareContext
35%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.95
69%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.35
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
4.65
BlocksContext
4.71
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.06
67%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
373
PassesContext
381
295
Accurate passesContext
305
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.15
FoulsContext
14.05
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
50%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
7.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
32%
On target shareContext
37%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.22
68%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.60
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.90
BlocksContext
5.13
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
71%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
366
PassesContext
353
288
Accurate passesContext
280
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.67
9.60
FoulsContext
14.70
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km395 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Wolves
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel108 km416 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 108 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 395 km | 416 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.9 | 10.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
42T. Iroegbunam
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
18J. Grealish
11T. Barry
7D. McNeil
Wolves
Confirmed XI
1José Sá(G)
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
15Y. Mosquera
3Hugo Bueno
36Mateus Mané
8João Gomes
10J. Arias
38J. Tchatchoua
11H. Hwang
14T. Arokodare
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Everton+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Wolves+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 1.40
Wolves · Away
0.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-8
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | L 2–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Burnley | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Bournemouth | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester United | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Fulham | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Tottenham | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Manchester City | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| West Ham | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Brighton | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Leeds | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 25 of 57 · 1.32 per game | 6 of 57 · 0.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Everton wins2 draws5 Wolves wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.30
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 30 Aug 2025Wolves2–3Everton
- 8 Mar 2025Wolves1–1Everton
- 4 Dec 2024Everton4–0Wolves
- 30 Dec 2023Wolves3–0Everton
- 26 Aug 2023Everton0–1Wolves
- 20 May 2023Wolves1–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 45% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 50% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Everton | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 6.72 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.89 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 13/20 | 72% 13/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 9/20 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.35 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Everton | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 7.11 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Kirk 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.67
Red cards0.08league 0.10
Cards 5+44%league 37%
Fouls21.4league 21.4
Penalties0.16league 0.20
Home wins40%league 45%
EvertonNo previous matches with this referee.
WolvesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Everton20 games · scored 22 · conceded 24
3
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Wolves20 games · scored 14 · conceded 40
2
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
3
46-60
12
61-75
2
8
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
9
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
