Excelsior vs Telstar – 28 Nov 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 14 Sat, Nov 28 · 15:30 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

VS— Compare

Telstar 16th · 6 pts · 9 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel61 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Excelsior—%

Draw—%

Telstar—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 13 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Excelsior

Telstar

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

21 AttackIn forecast 24

18 DefenceIn forecast 13

11 Form indexContext 11

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Telstar

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.40

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

89% Scored inContext 56%

22% Clean sheetsContext 11%

10.78 ShotsContext 12.00

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

35% On target shareContext 26%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

70% Box shareContext 62%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

15.67 Shots allowedContext 16.78

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67

4.22 BlocksContext 5.25

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.13

64% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 45%

390 PassesContext 400

309 Accurate passesContext 323

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.56 FoulsContext 10.44

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 11.50

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 26%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

66% Box shareContext 63%

17% ConversionContext 10%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.80 Shots allowedContext 16.60

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

4.50 BlocksContext 5.33

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.33

65% Save rateContext 73%

43% PossessionIn forecast 46%

389 PassesContext 394

309 Accurate passesContext 314

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.72

11.80 FoulsContext 11.20

7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Telstar LDLDL

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel61 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L17 OctH · Feyenoord3–40.7 xPts
D11 OctH · ADO Den Haag2–21.9 xPts
L20 SepA · AZ Alkmaar0–10.5 xPts
D13 SepA · Heerenveen0–01.1 xPts
L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Nov	6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	61 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Telstar Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Feyenoord (H) 3–4, 17 Oct

1R. Koeman(G)

43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk 3G. Alders

17N. Rossen 10T. Owusu 23N. Shenkman

27P. Brouwer 11N. Þórisson 42A. Martha

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Telstar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Telstar
Heerenveen	L 0–4 A	D 0–0 A
Ajax	D 2–2 A	L 0–4 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 H
Cambuur	W 4–0 A	D 2–2 H
Points	8 of 15 · 1.60 per game	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Excelsior wins2 draws0 Telstar wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

17 Jan 2026Excelsior2–2Telstar
1 Nov 2025Telstar2–2Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Telstar
Scored per game	1.78	1.11
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	3.78	3.11
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	67%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	67%	56%
Clean sheets	22%	11%
Failed to score	11%	44%
Games	9	9

	Excelsior	Telstar
Scored per game	1.90	1.20
Conceded per game	2.00	1.90
Match goals	3.90	3.10
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	100%	70%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.13
Corners conceded	4.50	6.75
Match total	8.75	10.88	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.22	1.56
Opponent cards	0.78	1.78
Match total	2.00	3.34	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	22% 2/9

	Excelsior	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.13
Corners conceded	4.56	6.75
Match total	8.56	10.88	10.39
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.60
Opponent cards	1.10	1.80
Match total	2.20	3.40	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.