Eredivisie Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 29 · 13:30 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Fortuna Sittard 6th · 15 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel218 kmRest days6.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Fortuna Sittard—%
Draw—%
Heerenveen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sittard)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Fortuna SittardHeerenveen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
19 AttackIn forecast 36
19 DefenceIn forecast 40
45 Form indexContext 39
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—
Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fortuna SittardHeerenveen
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22
0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
+0.85 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
89% Scored inContext 67%
11% Clean sheetsContext 44%
10.00 ShotsContext 15.11
4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
44% On target shareContext 40%
5.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.56
57% Box shareContext 66%
18% ConversionContext 11%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.20
19.33 Shots allowedContext 14.56
6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.22 BlocksContext 4.44
4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
71% Save rateContext 73%
35% PossessionIn forecast 53%
316 PassesContext 493
243 Accurate passesContext 421
77% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.92
9.22 FoulsContext 8.67
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.78
1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
2.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58
+0.76 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
80% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.20 ShotsContext 14.90
4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
41% On target shareContext 40%
5.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
53% Box shareContext 66%
16% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20
19.20 Shots allowedContext 15.20
6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22
5.20 BlocksContext 4.70
4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
71% Save rateContext 69%
36% PossessionIn forecast 54%
318 PassesContext 498
245 Accurate passesContext 425
77% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.88
9.10 FoulsContext 8.40
11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · NEC Nijmegen2–20.9 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Twente1–10.9 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Willem II1–01.4 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Ajax1–50.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · ADO Den Haag3–21.3 xPts
Heerenveen
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel218 km104 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
  • L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
  • L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Nov7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km218 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways282 km104 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 20 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.36.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2, 18 Oct
31M. Branderhorst(G)
28J. Hubner 23P. Brittijn 3R. Guth 6S. van Ottele 12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 14S. Simons
25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte
Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude
8N. Courtens 16M. Linday
7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Fortuna Sittard Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25
Heerenveen · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentFortuna SittardHeerenveen
Twente D 1–1 H W 1–0 H
Willem II W 1–0 A D 2–2 A
Ajax L 1–5 H D 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar L 0–2 H L 2–3 H
PSV Eindhoven D 2–2 A L 0–2 A
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Fortuna Sittard wins2 draws2 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.67 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 17%
  • 25 Apr 2026Heerenveen2–1Fortuna Sittard
  • 8 Nov 2025Fortuna Sittard2–0Heerenveen
  • 1 Feb 2025Heerenveen2–2Fortuna Sittard
  • 2 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard3–0Heerenveen
  • 3 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard3–3Heerenveen
  • 25 Nov 2023Heerenveen3–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Fortuna SittardHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 1.781.67
Conceded per game 1.891.22
Match goals 3.672.89
Over 1.5 89%78%
Over 2.5 67%56%
Over 3.5 67%56%
Both teams scored 78%33%
Clean sheets 11%44%
Failed to score 11%33%
Games99
Fortuna SittardHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 1.601.50
Conceded per game 1.901.10
Match goals 3.502.60
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%30%
Clean sheets 10%50%
Failed to score 20%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Fortuna SittardHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.335.11
Corners conceded8.674.89
Match total12.0010.0010.39
Over 8.583% 5/667% 6/9
Over 9.567% 4/644% 4/9
Over 10.567% 4/633% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.561.00
Opponent cards1.781.33
Match total3.342.332.77
Over 3.544% 4/911% 1/9
Over 4.522% 2/90% 0/9
Fortuna SittardHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.435.20
Corners conceded7.715.20
Match total11.1410.4010.39
Over 8.571% 5/770% 7/10
Over 9.557% 4/750% 5/10
Over 10.557% 4/740% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards1.601.20
Match total3.102.202.77
Over 3.540% 4/1010% 1/10
Over 4.520% 2/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Fortuna Sittard9 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
4 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 6 76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
4 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 6 76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Groningen Willem II Nov 2719:00 Excelsior Telstar Nov 2815:30 PSV Eindhoven GO Ahead Eagles Nov 2817:45 Cambuur Sparta Rotterdam Nov 2820:00 ADO Den Haag Utrecht Nov 2911:15 Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen Nov 2913:30 Feyenoord Ajax Nov 2913:30 PEC Zwolle AZ Alkmaar Nov 2915:45 NEC Nijmegen Twente Nov 2919:00