Eredivisie Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 21 · 20:00 711 Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
Telstar 16th · 6 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
PEC Zwolle 15th · 7 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel98 kmRest days14.2 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Telstar—%
Draw—%
PEC Zwolle—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

Forecast from 6 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Telstar and PEC Zwolle. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

TelstarPEC Zwolle
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
22 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
24 AttackIn forecast 17
13 DefenceIn forecast 14
11 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—
Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

TelstarPEC Zwolle
1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
2.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69
-0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
56% Scored inContext 56%
11% Clean sheetsContext 11%
12.00 ShotsContext 12.00
3.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
26% On target shareContext 35%
8.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
62% Box shareContext 59%
9% ConversionContext 9%
1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00
16.78 Shots allowedContext 19.44
6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78
5.25 BlocksContext 5.78
5.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
71% Save rateContext 64%
45% PossessionIn forecast 41%
400 PassesContext 348
323 Accurate passesContext 265
81% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.59
10.44 FoulsContext 11.22
12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.20
2.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90
-0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
60% Scored inContext 50%
10% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.50 ShotsContext 11.50
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
26% On target shareContext 34%
7.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
63% Box shareContext 58%
10% ConversionContext 9%
1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00
16.60 Shots allowedContext 19.70
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90
5.33 BlocksContext 5.60
5.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
73% Save rateContext 65%
46% PossessionIn forecast 42%
394 PassesContext 355
314 Accurate passesContext 271
80% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.60
11.20 FoulsContext 11.20
12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Feyenoord3–40.7 xPts
  • D11 OctH · ADO Den Haag2–21.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · AZ Alkmaar0–10.5 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Heerenveen0–01.1 xPts
  • L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts
PEC Zwolle
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel98 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · GO Ahead Eagles4–11.3 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Cambuur0–11.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Groningen0–30.8 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Feyenoord0–70.8 xPts
  • D4 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Telstar PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Nov15Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km98 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.87.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Feyenoord (H) 3–4, 17 Oct
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk 3G. Alders
17N. Rossen 10T. Owusu 23N. Shenkman
27P. Brouwer 11N. Þórisson 42A. Martha
PEC Zwolle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas
11D. Mbayo 25T. Oosting 37Gilles van der Wal
17S. van Hooijdonk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Telstar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PEC Zwolle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 0.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
0-2-3
Scored
1.60
Conceded
3.00
PEC Zwolle · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

OpponentTelstarPEC Zwolle
Feyenoord L 3–4 H L 0–7 H
Heerenveen D 0–0 A W 2–0 A
Twente L 0–1 A L 1–3 A
Cambuur D 2–2 H L 0–1 H
Ajax L 0–4 H L 0–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam L 1–3 H D 2–2 A
NEC Nijmegen W 2–1 A L 1–3 H
Points5 of 21 · 0.71 per game4 of 21 · 0.57 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Telstar wins0 draws2 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 31 Jan 2026PEC Zwolle4–1Telstar
  • 15 Aug 2025Telstar0–2PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

TelstarPEC ZwolleForecast
Scored per game 1.111.11
Conceded per game 2.002.44
Match goals 3.113.56
Over 1.5 67%89%
Over 2.5 67%67%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 56%44%
Clean sheets 11%11%
Failed to score 44%44%
Games99
TelstarPEC ZwolleForecast
Scored per game 1.201.00
Conceded per game 1.902.40
Match goals 3.103.40
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 60%40%
Clean sheets 10%10%
Failed to score 40%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

TelstarPEC ZwolleLeague
Corners
Corners won4.134.33
Corners conceded6.757.22
Match total10.8811.5510.39
Over 8.563% 5/889% 8/9
Over 9.563% 5/878% 7/9
Over 10.563% 5/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.561.44
Opponent cards1.781.00
Match total3.342.442.77
Over 3.544% 4/933% 3/9
Over 4.522% 2/922% 2/9
TelstarPEC ZwolleLeague
Corners
Corners won4.134.00
Corners conceded6.757.70
Match total10.8811.7010.39
Over 8.563% 5/890% 9/10
Over 9.563% 5/880% 8/10
Over 10.563% 5/870% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.601.30
Opponent cards1.800.90
Match total3.402.202.77
Over 3.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Telstar9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
2 5 76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2 3 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
6 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
2 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
NEC Nijmegen PSV Eindhoven Nov 2115:30 Utrecht Cambuur Nov 2117:45 Feyenoord Excelsior Nov 2117:45 Groningen Heerenveen Nov 2120:00 Telstar PEC Zwolle Nov 2120:00 Twente Willem II Nov 2211:15 Ajax ADO Den Haag Nov 2213:30 Sparta Rotterdam AZ Alkmaar Nov 2213:30 GO Ahead Eagles Fortuna Sittard Nov 2215:45