Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Casa Pia. Famalicao had 8 days of rest, Casa Pia 9.2 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Famalicao46%
Draw28%
Casa Pia26%
Famalicao52%
Draw25%
Casa Pia23%
Famalicao46%
Draw28%
Casa Pia26%
Famalicao39%
Draw29%
Casa Pia32%
Famalicao46%
Draw27%
Casa Pia27%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Famalicao
Casa Pia
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
24
AttackIn forecast
13
36
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoCasa Pia
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
0.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
68%
Scored inContext
59%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
11.55
ShotsContext
8.23
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.15
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.81
Shots in the boxContext
4.81
64%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.05
Shots allowedContext
13.64
4.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.86
BlocksContext
3.91
3.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
77%
Save rateContext
59%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
381
PassesContext
307
310
Accurate passesContext
232
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.69
16.77
FoulsContext
14.86
16.18
Fouls sufferedContext
13.82
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.09
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.70
ShotsContext
7.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
37%
On target shareContext
37%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
55%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.83
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.20
BlocksContext
4.30
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
70%
Save rateContext
63%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
399
PassesContext
275
330
Accurate passesContext
199
83%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.69
14.30
FoulsContext
15.60
16.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km606 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 606 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
2Gustavo Garcia
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
20Gustavo Sá
7Sorriso
9Umar Abubakar
23Gil Dias
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
3Kaly
4João Goulart
5A. Conté
8Rafael Brito
80L. Ofori
19Kevin Prieto
13Oluwakorede Osundina
29J. Livolant
99Claudio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.82
Casa Pia · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| AVS | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | L 3–5 H |
| Benfica | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Moreirense | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Arouca | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 31 of 63 · 1.48 per game | 21 of 63 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Famalicao wins2 draws2 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.14 – 0.86
Over 2.529%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 21 Sep 2025Casa Pia1–1Famalicao
- 16 May 2025Famalicao2–1Casa Pia
- 5 Jan 2025Casa Pia1–1Famalicao
- 17 May 2024Famalicao1–2Casa Pia
- 13 Jan 2024Casa Pia0–2Famalicao
- 13 Mar 2023Famalicao1–0Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.18 | 3.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 55% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 41% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Famalicao | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 3.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 9.15 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 14/22 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 10/22 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.59 | 3.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 4.77 | 5.77 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 86% 19/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 11/22 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Famalicao | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.44 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.87
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+33%league 59%
Fouls31.3league 26.9
Penalties0.33league 0.44
Home wins83%league 42%
Famalicao2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L22 Dec 25A · Benfica0–11
- L3 May 25A · Farense1–24
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao22 games · scored 27 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
Casa Pia21 games · scored 22 · conceded 36
4
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
