Estrela vs Nacional – 7 Feb 2027

Primeira Liga Gameweek 21 Sun, Feb 7 · 16:00 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

VS— Compare

Nacional 16th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel969 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Estrela—%

Draw—%

Nacional—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Amadora)

Forecast from 23 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Nacional 6 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Estrela

Nacional

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

24 AttackIn forecast 15

27 DefenceIn forecast 13

24 Form indexContext 5

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Nacional

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

75% Scored inContext 63%

0% Clean sheetsContext 13%

12.63 ShotsContext 11.00

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

33% On target shareContext 28%

8.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

68% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.88 Shots allowedContext 14.63

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

2.13 BlocksContext 3.14

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

61% Save rateContext 58%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

412 PassesContext 406

345 Accurate passesContext 334

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.61

10.75 FoulsContext 11.13

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.10 ShotsContext 10.50

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

34% On target shareContext 28%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

69% Box shareContext 60%

14% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.43

11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.20

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

2.40 BlocksContext 3.22

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

63% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

384 PassesContext 390

317 Accurate passesContext 317

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.61

11.00 FoulsContext 12.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela DWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km637 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Nacional LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel969 km1,909 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	969 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	637 km	1,909 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Nacional Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rio Ave (A) 2–3, 11 Oct

1R. Bellucci(G)

21W. Kokolo 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 88Deivison

31D. Dongmo 15C. Labidi

12M. Song 20M. Djaló 10Daniel Júnior

29N. Kader

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Nacional Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.75

Nacional · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Nacional
Rio Ave	D 3–3 A	L 2–3 A
Famalicao	D 2–2 H	L 0–4 H
Alverca	D 2–2 A	L 1–3 H
Sporting CP	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	0 of 12 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Estrela wins1 draws1 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%

30 Aug 2026Nacional2–3Estrela
4 Apr 2026Nacional2–0Estrela
9 Nov 2025Estrela1–1Nacional
6 Apr 2025Nacional0–1Estrela
10 Nov 2024Estrela2–0Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Nacional
Scored per game	1.75	1.13
Conceded per game	1.88	2.25
Match goals	3.63	3.38
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	75%	63%
Over 3.5	63%	63%
Both teams scored	75%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Estrela	Nacional
Scored per game	1.60	1.10
Conceded per game	1.70	2.00
Match goals	3.30	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	40%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	5.50
Corners conceded	4.71	4.33
Match total	9.57	9.83	8.91
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.38
Opponent cards	2.50	2.63
Match total	4.88	4.01	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8

	Estrela	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.13
Corners conceded	5.56	4.50
Match total	9.78	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.90	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.