Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Famalicao had 7 days of rest, Nacional 6 and had to travel 1,222 km.
Away travel1,222 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Famalicao53%
Draw27%
Nacional20%
Famalicao58%
Draw24%
Nacional19%
Famalicao53%
Draw27%
Nacional20%
Famalicao46%
Draw29%
Nacional25%
Famalicao53%
Draw27%
Nacional20%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 16
Team strength
Famalicao
Nacional
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
24
AttackIn forecast
15
36
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoNacional
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
69%
Scored inContext
69%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.96
ShotsContext
12.19
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.04
33%
On target shareContext
33%
8.08
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
64%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.96
Shots allowedContext
13.85
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.72
BlocksContext
3.88
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
80%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
389
PassesContext
319
318
Accurate passesContext
243
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.77
16.35
FoulsContext
14.27
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.54
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.69
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
60%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.20
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
56%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.90
BlocksContext
2.90
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
81%
Save rateContext
74%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
414
PassesContext
350
345
Accurate passesContext
274
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.20
FoulsContext
14.30
17.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,222 km2,460 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,222 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 38 km | 2,460 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
20Gustavo Sá
7Sorriso
12S. Elisor
23Gil Dias
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
24Lenny Vallier
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
8Miguel Baeza
6Matheus Dias
15C. Labidi
11Paulinho Bóia
19Lucas João
10Daniel Júnior
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
1.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-4
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 0.69
Nacional · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Arouca | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Rio Ave | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–4 H |
| AVS | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 39 of 75 · 1.56 per game | 22 of 75 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Famalicao wins1 draws1 Nacional wins
Goals per game0.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 1 Nov 2025Nacional0–1Famalicao
- 1 Mar 2025Nacional2–1Famalicao
- 29 Sep 2024Famalicao0–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.08 | 2.58 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 58% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Famalicao | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 4.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.92 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 11/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 4.61 | 5.46 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Famalicao | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.78 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.13league 4.85
Red cards0.38league 0.27
Cards 5+81%league 59%
Fouls28.4league 27.0
Penalties0.50league 0.44
Home wins25%league 41%
Famalicao1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25H · GIL Vicente0–03
Nacional2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L1 Feb 25H · Arouca1–26
- L7 Dec 24A · GIL Vicente1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao26 games · scored 32 · conceded 22
3
1
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Nacional26 games · scored 29 · conceded 38
2
6
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
7
31-45
6
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
7
11
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
